ETHIOPIA: A WAR OF DISASTER


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Tigrayan fighters are bearing down on Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, prompting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to call on the city’s five million residents to take up arms to counter the forces while enforcing a state of emergency that puts Tigrayan residents at risk of forced detainment.
The Trends Journal has been reporting on the civil war since it began on 3 November 2020 and the deadly implications. Abiy sent federal troops into Tigray to respond to an unauthorized election during the COVID-19 outbreak. (See “ETHIOPIA AND SUDAN: TENSIONS RISING,” and “ANOTHER ETHNIC MASSACRE IN ETHIOPIA.”)
Abiy said his forces would put the election’s organizers back into line, and the conflict would be resolved within weeks. The former Nobel Peace Prize winner underestimated the fight in Tigrayan forces and the war is now at the one-year mark. Within that time, there have been widespread reports of ethnic killings, rapes, and other war crimes. 
The humanitarian crisis in the country is considered the worst in the world. These are just a few of the many articles and trend forecasts we have made since then:

Abiy has shown little interest in seeking peace. He recently told his top army officers that Ethiopia will crush her enemies “with the blood and bones of her children and live forever in glory.” 
He has referred to the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, TPLF, as a “cancer” that must be stomped out.
Abiy, who was once seen as an inspiring young leader, put into place a state of emergency that called on the detainment of any Tigrayan who resides in the capital city. These individuals have been forced into warehouses, the Economist magazine said. The New York Times called Abiy’s orders “draconian” and warned that they could lead to an increase in ethnically motivated violence.
More troubling, is that reports indicate that Abiy is under the belief that he is on a divine mission to rid the earth of the forces from Mekele, the capital of Tigray. Foreign officials who have spoken to Abiy told the Economist that the leader can’t understand why the West is not in his corner because he believes that he is fighting “the forces of darkness.”
He believes his mission is to end the fighting and “deliver Ethiopians from the darkness and into the light,” one diplomat said. Facebook removed one of his posts that called for residents in Addis Ababa to use “whatever weapon” to “bury the terrorist TPLF.”
“A rat that strays far from its hole is nearer to its death,” a statement from Abiy’s government said.
It is reported that the Biden administration has tried to bring the fighting to an end by implementing various trade restrictions and threats of economic sanctions. But nothing has worked.
“With the safety and security of millions in the balance, and more than 900,000 facing conflict-induced famine-like conditions, we prevail upon all forces to lay down their arms and open dialogue to maintain the unity and integrity of the Ethiopian state,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement Thursday. 
Amnesty International called on all sides in the conflict to lay down their arms due to the humanitarian crisis in the country of 115 million. Oxfam says about 6.9 million people in northern Ethiopia are in need of emergency food assistance. There are at least 400,000 living in famine-like conditions and the “humanitarian needs are outpacing aid.”
The war has gone back and forth. Federal troops, with the aid of Eritrean forces, seemed to have a commanding advantage during the onset. But that all changed when the TLPF dealt Addis Ababa a stunning defeat in June when they took back Mekelle and sent federal forces fleeing. They have been on the offensive ever since. It has been widely reported that Ethiopia is preventing aid from reaching those in need in Tigray.
About nine groups have formed a coalition to take on Abiy’s government. This coalition consists of those from various “regional and ethnic interests,” according to CNN.
TRENDPOST: The Trends Journal has long reported that the conflict could ensnare the entire Horn of Africa. Uhuru Kenyatta, the president of Kenya, said in a statement that the fighting has to stop. There is fear that the conflict would lead to a flood of migrants into the country, The New York Times reported.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed seems immune to pressure from the U.S. and other Western countries. On Saturday, the State Department ordered the departure of all non-essential diplomats from the country, Al Jazeera reported. Countries like Sweden, Norway, and (try not to laugh) Saudi Arabia have also told their diplomats to leave. (See “MURDEROUS YEMEN WAR: MILLIONS IN PERIL. WHO CARES?”)
“Incidents of civil unrest and ethnic violence are occurring without warning. The situation may escalate further and may cause supply chain shortages, communications blackouts, and travel disruptions,” the U.S. embassy said on its website on Saturday.
TREND FORECAST: This Ethiopian civil war will continue to rage. The longer it lasts, more people will be escaping in efforts to find safe-haven nations. As economic conditions deteriorate across the continent, there will be strong anti-immigration populist movements in Europe to stop the flow of African nationals who will risk their lives to leave nations wracked by civil unrest, poverty, crime, government corruption and violence. 

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