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The Biden administration announced last week that U.S. forces will carry out “air and maritime transits” in the Taiwan Strait after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit earlier this month that prompted China to conduct massive military drills just off of Taiwan.
Kurt Campbell, the White House coordinator for Asia-Pacific issues, told reporters that the U.S. will continue conducting “standard air and maritime transits through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks,” Al Jazeera reported. He did not go into specific details about what kind of maneuvers the U.S. military would perform in the waterway.
TRENDPOST: The Trends Journal has long reported on the tension between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, and that tension reached a boiling point after Pelosi’s visit to assure Taipei of Washington’s support. The White House appeared willing to distance itself from Pelosi, but analysts believe the trip must have received prior approval. (See “WILL CHINA SOON INVADE TAIWAN?” “PELOSI PUSHES WAR, U.S. MEDIA PROMOTES IT” and “TAIWAN MILITARY RAMP-UP WILL NOT STOP CHINA.”)
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory and will “unify” the renegade island—separated by the Taiwan Strait—with force if needed. Taiwan, which is home to about 24 million, has been governed independently since 1949. China has long said that when it decides to take back control of the island, there is no military force that will be able to stop it.
Campbell blamed China for “overreacting” to Pelosi’s visit and said Beijing’s actions “continue to be provocative, destabilizing, and unprecedented.” He said the U.S. is reasserting itself in the area, while holding true to its policy of “strategic ambiguity.”
The New York Times, citing unnamed officials, reported that the U.S. Navy plans to ignore China’s claim that it controls the Taiwan Strait and will sail ships through the waterway. These officials told the paper that these ships will not include the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan because it would be seen as too provocative.
The U.S. accused Beijing of trying to capitalize on Pelosi’s visit by staking new claims and enforcing new standards in the region. Colin H. Kahl, the Under Secretary of Defense for policy, said the U.S. will not be coerced by the Chinese.
“What we’ll do instead, is to continue to fly, to sail, and operate wherever international law allows us to do so, and that includes the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
The Economist said “fortunately,” China’s response to Pelosi’s provocation has been “muscular but calibrated, designed to show its anger and might, while avoiding escalation.”
The magazine said Japan was “irked” after some Chinese missiles fired during these military drills landed in its vicinity, and Tokyo “indicated that it could intervene in a war, which would greatly complicate a Chinese invasion.”
TREND FORECAST: Beijing has long declared that Taiwan is part of its territory under its “One China Principle,” and it is the mainland’s territory under its Constitution. We forecast that just as Beijing has clamped down on Hong Kong protests and taken full control, so, too, will they take control of Taiwan when they are ready.
Despite condemnations when they do so, there will be no military forces from other nations that will challenge Communist China’s military might. Indeed, America, with the largest military in the world, has not won a war since World War II and cannot even win against third-world nations, such as Afghanistan, after invading that nation some 20 years ago.
We’ve seen Washington display its appetite for war by funding Ukraine’s effort against the Russians, but Americans, after seeing the recent disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq, do not want to see U.S. forces squaring off with China over Taiwan.
Taiwan doesn’t stand a chance against China, which spends 25 times the amount Taipei does on its military. China also has a hundred times as many ground-force troops as the island.
Should war break out between China and Taiwan, we forecast the Taiwanese military will not aggressively fight back, since doing so would result in millions of deaths and mass destruction.