Taiwan is reportedly considering its own military might amid new Chinese aggression as war drags on between Ukraine and Russia.
Beijing has long declared Taiwan as part of its territory under its “One China Principle.” The U.S. has historically pursued a policy toward the matter as “strategic ambiguity,” which means it will aid Taiwan’s defenses but will not promise to come to the island’s defenses in the event of an attack.
TRENDPOST: Similarly, The Trends Journal has reported extensively on the tension between Beijing and Taipei. (See “TAIWAN MILITARY RAMP-UP WILL NOT STOP CHINA.”) China spends 25 times the amount Taipei does on its military. Beijing also has a hundred times as many ground-force troops as the island.
Voyage of Concern
China sailed its Shandong aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait on Friday—coming within 30 nautical miles from a Taiwan-controlled island, the Financial Times reported.
The Chinese flagship made its close approach just hours before Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call with President Joe Biden about Ukraine and other issues.
Reuters reported that the Shandong was trailed—for at least some of its voyage—by the USS Ralph Johnson. Lt. Mark Langford, a U.S. Navy spokesman said.
The Arleigh Burke-class destroyer “conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit March 17 (local time) through international waters in accordance with international law,” the Navy said.
Ready for Confrontation?
Taiwanese military officials have been discussing the country’s readiness to defend itself if China decides to invade.
The FT reported that there is growing concern about the strength of the military—especially after a Chinese civilian plane recently buzzed Dongyin, Taiwan’s northernmost territory.
There are concerns that Taiwan’s military failed to spot the aircraft on 5 February and then downplayed the significance of the security breach. It is believed that China could be trying to size up Taipei’s satellite capabilities.
Dongyin residents heard the aircraft, “implying that the aircraft had entered its airspace and might have been attempting to avoid radar detection,” The Taipei Times reported.
“The airspace above Dongyin is restricted. Civilian aircraft and drones must obtain permission to fly through the area. One military expert warned that if it is not a one-off incident, then it indicates that China’s gray zone tactics are headed in a worrying new direction,” the paper wrote.
After the invasion of Ukraine, the slogan “Today, Ukraine, tomorrow, Taiwan!” spread online in Taiwan, according to The New York Times.
TREND FORECAST: We forecast that just as Beijing has clamped down on Hong Kong protests and taken full control, so, too, will they take control of Taiwan when they are ready.
Despite condemnations when they do so, there will be no military forces from other nations that will challenge Communist China’s military might. Indeed, America, with the largest military in the world, has not won a war since World War II and cannot even win against third-world nations, such as Afghanistan, after invading that nation some 20 years ago.
The Ukraine invasion showed that the U.S. is willing to offer support by exporting military equipment and level sanctions, but it does not want to fight China in a war that it would lose.
Should war break out between China and Taiwan, we forecast the Taiwanese military will not aggressively fight back, since doing so would result in millions of deaths and mass destruction.
Andrew Scobell, PH.D, and Lucy Stevenson-Yang were published by the U.S. Institute of Peace and claimed that while there are similarities between Taipei and Kyiv, there are some important differences.
“The People’s Liberation Army—as all branches of China’s armed forces are known—continues to assume that if it launches an invasion of Taiwan, the U.S. military will swiftly and decisively intervene. The U.S.-Taiwan relationship, while technically “unofficial” due to the One China policy, has strengthened in recent years. On February 28, the Biden administration sent an unofficial delegation of former U.S. defense and national security officials to Taiwan as a signal to China of that commitment. It remains true that the greatest deterrence to a massive Chinese military attack on the island is Beijing’s assumption that war with Taiwan also means a war with the United States.”
Beijing warned again Saturday that no one force would be able to stop China if it took action against Taiwan.
TREND FORECAST: “TOP TRENDS OF 2021: THE RISE OF CHINA.” As we have forecast, the 20th century was the American century—the 21st century will be the Chinese century. The business of China is business; the business of America is war.
While America spent countless trillions waging and losing endless wars and enriching its military-industrial complex, China has spent its trillions advancing the nation’s businesses and building its 21st-century infrastructure.
Moreover, it should be made clear that despite the scores of trillions of dollars U.S. taxpayers have poured into the pockets of the military/industrial/intelligence complex, the “We’re #1” nation has not won a war since World War II… a war that the U.S.S.R. was also instrumental in fighting the Axis powers.
Therefore, absent pure insanity (which reigns deep in the heartless souls and egotistical minds of politicians), considering the weaponry of New Millennium Warfare, which Gerald Celente had detailed in his keynote speaker address at the Virginia Military Institute in 2000, a war between the U.S. and China would be the end of life on earth as we know it.
That will not stop the U.S. military from spending money on new weapons systems, however. Nikkei reported that the U.S. will spend $27.4 billion on a network of precision-strike missiles in Taiwan, Okinawa and the Philippines, “which China sees as the first line of defense.”
China Hits Taiwan Over Donation to Ukraine
Taiwan’s government announced Tuesday that it donated $11.5 million to assist Ukrainians who are fleeing from their country amid the Russian invasion, drawing a swift rebuke from China.
Beijing accused the Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei of attempting to use the war to “validate their existence and piggyback on a hot issue, taking advantage of others difficulties,” the Financial Times reported. The latest donation follows a $3.5 million donation earlier in the conflict.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen announced that she will donate a month’s salary to the humanitarian effort for Ukraine, Reuters reported. The report said she makes about $14,250 a month as president.
Ken Wu, vice president of the Los Angeles chapter of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs, told VOA News that Taiwanese residents believe that if “they stand behind Ukraine now and save Ukraine, they will be able to stop the aggression once and for all.”
“This is a really good lesson for the Chinese to see the cost of an aggressor,” he said.
The report, citing China Daily, said that China does not believe that the Taiwan issue is equivalent to Ukraine because Taiwan is a “domestic matter.”