ETHIOPIA’S CIVIL WAR WORSENING

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed last week called on “all capable Ethiopians” of fighting age to sign up for the country’s defense forces to confront the advancing Tigrayan forces that have changed the course of the war after some decisive victories.
Abiy, the 2019 Nobel Prize winner who launched the War in November 2020, said in the statement that it was time for Ethiopians to show their patriotism.
The statement was released as Tigrayan forces continue to make advances in the country after calls of a cease-fire from Addis Ababa and was the latest salvo from Abiy to threaten the stability in the Horn of Africa and seemed to snuff out any hope of a ceasefire.
The Trends Journal has been reporting on the conflict since it began (see “ANOTHER NOBEL PEACE PRIZE WINNER GOES TO WAR,” 10 Nov 2020).
These are just a few of the many articles and trend forecasts we have made since then:

• “ETHIOPIA’S TIGRAY WAR HORRORS”  (15 Dec 2020)
• “ETHIOPIA AND SUDAN: TENSIONS RISING” (26 Jan 2021)
• “ANOTHER ETHNIC MASSACRE IN ETHIOPIA” (4 May 2021)
• “ETHIOPIAN MILITARY CRISIS CONTINUES TO WORSEN” (29 Jun 2021)

Abiy Ahmed launched the war against Tigray in November, saying it was because they had a vote in September, despite a countrywide voting ban due to the COVID outbreak. 
He accused the TPLF of attacking a military base. Tigray was considered a potential threat to his power because it makes up about 6 percent of the country’s population of 110 million, and it has ruled Ethiopia for two decades.
He assured the country that his troops would make quick work of the Tigrayan forces, but that has not materialized and there is now a humanitarian crisis.
Oxfam reported last month that millions of people have been impacted by the fighting that broke out in Tigray in November 2020 and about 1.7 million have been displaced within Ethiopia. The UN said that more than five million people could need humanitarian assistance in Tigray and more than 350,000 are experiencing famine-like conditions. The UN report said at the time that 100,000 children in Tigray could face life-threatening malnutrition in the next 12 months.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the international call for peace has fallen on deaf ears.
Leaders from the TPLF announced that they were discussing a military alliance with Oromiya, which is the country’s more populous region. The alliance would be a major threat to Abiy, Al Jazeera reported.
“I hope we are going to squeeze this government and if possible—and I know it’s possible—we are going to overthrow this regime and stop this crisis,” Kumsa Diriba, the OLA leader, said. The report pointed out that the government looks at both groups as terror organizations.
Payton Knopf, a former U.S. diplomat, told The Associated Press earlier in the conflict that the fight should not be looked at as “just another tribal African war.”
“This is much more akin to what an Inter-state war would look like,” he said, when considering the formidable Tigrayan fighters. “This is no this is not Syria, right? This is not Yemen. This is a different order of magnitude.” 
On 29 June, in an article titled, “TIGRAY FORCES RETAKE CAPITAL CITY,” we reported about the Tigrayan forces overtaking the region’s capital Mekelle, which was seen as a stunning turn of events. 
TRENDPOST: Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, announced that the U.S. would send a special envoy to Ethiopia to try and get both sides to agree to a ceasefire.
“Months of war have brought immense suffering and division to a great nation that won’t be healed through more fighting. We call on all parties to urgently come to the negotiating table,” Sullivan said in a tweet. 
In a report on 20 April, “MORE WAR CRIMES IN TIGRAY,” we pointed out that Ethiopian forces team up with Eritrean troops to allegedly commit war crimes during the conflict.
Mark Lowcock, the top U.N. humanitarian official, told The New York Times at the time that Eritrean troops killed civilians in indiscriminate attacks. Sexual violence accounts for almost one-third of these attacks and is being used as a weapon of war, officials said. Some women have been gang-raped for several days by Eritrean soldiers, Lowcock said.
It will be interesting to see how the U.S.’s attempt at mediation will go after Biden’s troop drawdown in Afghanistan and subsequent carnage. Some political observers see the situation in Afghanistan as a warning for countries not to trust the U.S. with their future.
TREND FORECAST: The Tigray war, launched by the Ethiopian government, has been essentially blacked out from the rest of the world. There are no news reporters in the Tigray region providing firsthand information, thus the true extent of the war, how many have been killed, and the damage done are only estimates.
However, as we have forecast, the greater the tensions rise and the deeper the nation falls economically, the more people in this highly-populated nation will seek refuge in safe-haven European nations. This will, in turn, boost populist political party movements throughout the Eurozone.
Beyond Ethiopia, as we have been reporting, this trend will escalate, as economies throughout Africa continue to decline and civil unrest intensifies.
Despite Abiy’s Tigray War loss, his ruling Prosperity Party “overwhelmingly” won the general elections on Saturday and he will remain in power another term. The country’s opposition and foreign observers raised concerns about the integrity of the election.