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The Tigray People’s Liberation Front continued on its move last week to repel federal troops in various parts of the country of 114 million people, which has raised new concerns that Ethiopia could be torn apart.
As we have been reporting, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the 2019 recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, ordered a major offensive in the region in November because Tigrayan leaders held an election in violation of a countrywide voting ban due to the coronavirus. He accused the TPLF of attacking a military base. Tigray was considered a potential threat to his power.
The Trends Journal has reported extensively on the conflict since its onset. (See: “ANOTHER ETHNIC MASSACRE IN ETHIOPIA,” “ETHIOPIA WAR=TIGRAY SLAUGHTER.”)
Abiy has vowed to wipe out the TPLF and referred to the group as “weeds,” “cancer,” and a “disease,” according to AllAfrica.com.
“The enemy we are facing is Ethiopia’s cancer,” he said. He called Tigryan forces a terrorist group and accused leaders of employing children for soldiers.
“TPLF’s continued provocations directed at the Ethiopian National Defence Force, through the use of child soldiers and armed civilians, attempting to draw our forces into an altercation, need to be strongly condemned by the international community,” a statement from the government said.
Tigrayan leaders denied the allegation.
Solomon Ketema, a political analyst, told Nation.africa that Abiy aims to consolidate Ethiopian forces and “launch a large offensive against TPLF.”
“A large offensive means the conflict will not anymore be confined in the region,” he said. “The intended move is so very dangerous and it could probably be the beginning journey towards the country’s disintegration.”
The Financial Times reported that forces from across the country have fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF. A senior member of the Tigrayan force tried to calm tensions with other ethnic groups across the country, saying, “Our conflict is not with Amhara, Afar, and other oppressed people. Our quarrel is with Abiy.”
The conditions in the region are horrible and the UN determined that at least 350,000 are dealing with famine, some other agencies put that number at about 900,000.
On 13 July we published a story, “ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT LOSES TIGRAY WAR” which pointed out that Abiy drastically underestimated the will of the TPLF and its guerilla fighters. Abiy was so confident that he declared victory last year.
TRENDS FORECAST: As we have forecast since Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched the war against Tigrays last November, the conflict in the country would destabilize the Horn of Africa, create a humanitarian crisis, and would not end quickly, as he had promised.
As the “Greatest Depression” worsens, economic conditions will deteriorate and civil unrest, which had been quelled, will escalate. As Gerald Celente has long noted, “When all else fails, they take you to war.” Thus, the greater the tensions rise and the deeper the nation falls economically, the more people in this highly-populated area of 116 million will seek refuge in safe-haven European nations. This will, in turn, boost populist political party movements throughout the Eurozone.
Beyond Ethiopia, as we have been reporting, this trend will escalate, as economies throughout Africa continue to decline and civil unrest intensifies.