As we have been reporting in the Trends Journal, since 1 February, tens of thousands of protesters in Myanmar have taken to the streets to fight for democracy after a military coup overturned recent election results and arrested the civilian leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who reportedly won by a landslide this past November.
The protests have turned deadly. A recent report said the double-impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and the coup will essentially erase a decade of economic development and plunge about 12 million of its citizens into poverty.
The Financial Times reported Saturday that if the situation on the ground does not improve, it could result in half of the country’s 54 million citizens sinking below what is considered the poverty line of about $1 a day in 2022. The U.N. Development Program told the FT that even before the coup, the virus outbreak threatened the livelihood of millions in the country.
The International Monetary Fund said in a 12 April report that 39 million people around the world may slide into extreme poverty this year – defined as living on $1.90 a day or less – in addition to the 124 million that fell into extreme poverty in 2020.
Myanmar’s economy has been decimated by violent protests and massive strikes.
TRENDPOST: The vast majority of the population hasn’t a clue of what is going on in Myanmar, where the country is, and what it means. Just as there is no concern about the slaughter going on in Yemen, the uprisings in Chad, the war in Ethiopia, etc., and the socioeconomic and geopolitical implications… which we continue to detail.
The Trends Journal has extensively covered the conflict in Myanmar. (See our 30 March article, “MYANMAR: ANOTHER DAY, MORE BLOODSHED,” and our 13 April article, “MYANMAR MILITARY RAMPS UP ATTACKS ON PROTESTERS.”)
We maintain our forecast that military rule will continue in Myanmar, and threats by the U.N., the United States, and other nations will achieve nothing in terms of bringing so-called “Democracy” to the country.
Furthermore, the stronger outside countries pressure the Myanmar government – be they in sanctions or supporting rebel movements – the greater the ruling government will strengthen its ties with its Chinese neighbor.
On Sunday, Myanmar security forces opened fire on protesters, killing at least eight. Reuters reported that the organizers of the protest billed the event as “the Global Myanmar Spring Revolution.”
In the near term, the military will take measures to accommodate the protesters. In the long run, as they did when Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was in power, the new leader will be only a figurehead, and the military will remain in full control.
