UKRAINE TENSIONS HEATING UP: RUSSIA AMASSING TROOPS

Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and announced on Friday it will begin military exercises in the Black Sea and will block foreign ships in parts of it through October. The U.S. State Department condemned Russia’s actions saying this was part of an “ongoing campaign to undermine and destabilize Ukraine.”
Calling Moscow’s decision an “unprovoked escalation,” the U.S. canceled sending two warships to the region after the Kremlin warned, “Stay away for your own good.”
Today, the Wall Street Journal reported that satellite photos it obtained show Russia has moved warplanes to Crimea and bases near Ukraine to an extent greater than previously estimated.
Last week, Russia’s defense minister Sergei Shoigu said the troop build-ups and exercises were in response to the Ukrainian government’s attempts to raise tensions between the two nations. He said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization actions “threaten Russia.”
Axios reported it obtained an internal document from Ukraine’s ministry of defense that claimed Moscow was performing military drills in commercial lanes to cripple Kyiv’s economy. There is also fear that Russia is planning an invasion.
TREND FORECAST: We maintain our forecast that should war break out in Ukraine, the Russians will not be defeated, and the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine will move toward cession and maintain its open border arrangement with Russia.