THE BIG STORY VS. THE BIG PICTURE. The big story in America, the land of Fear and Hysteria, is the second Trump impeachment trial, even though he is out of office, and it may be unconstitutional.
As we had forecast when the first one began back in December 2019 when the House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, it was a total waste of time to follow it… and a waste of taxpayer money to launch it.
Again, we at the Trends Journal are political atheists. We identify, analyze, and forecast trends for what they are and not for what we want them to be, so we do not take sides.
So why was the Round #1 impeachment a total waste of time and taxpayer money? And why did we tell our subscribers not to waste their precious time and energy following it… and instead dedicate their resources to better understand what in the world is going on, what it means to them, and what to do to prepare for the future?
Because only imbeciles, idiots, and people with little minds who hated Trump so much they wanted to see him sink were dumb enough to believe that the Senate, which had a Republican majority, would vote to convict him.
And they didn’t. Not even close.
Neither of the impeachment articles got the support of a two-thirds supermajority of senators. Fifty-two Republican senators voted against the charge of abuse of power, and all 53 voted against the charge of obstruction of Congress.
And while the Senate is now split 50/50 Democrat and Republican, since it requires a two-thirds majority to impeach him in Round #2, that will in no way happen.
Even if they did impeach Trump, what difference would it make to the lives and livelihoods of We the People? NONE!
Yet, the media keeps promoting the Presidential Reality Show®, while the vast majority of the nation remains solidly ignorant of the current events that are forming future trends.
On the Economic Front
As evidenced by the data, America and much of the world are on the path of steep decline.
Never before in the history of the world have nations, states, and cities been locked down and businesses destroyed as they have to fight the COVID War: cinemas, malls, theaters, concerts, fairs, trade shows, conventions, restaurants, bars, hotels, airlines, cruise ships, mom and pop shops, etc…. sinking, dead and empty.
Since the COVID War began one year ago, nearly four in ten of all the jobs lost since February 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, were in the leisure and hospitality sector.
Multiply that number times all the nations, workers, products, industries, and related businesses that rely on hospitality and tourism – the economic, personal, and mental devastation is incalculable.
To make it 100 percent clear, yes, we forecast an economic bounce back, but what has been lost is lost. The millions of businesses that have gone bust are finished, and as the Congressional Budget Office concludes, the jobs that have been lost will not return until 2024… that is, of course, if politicians end the COVID War and do not start other ones, health-related or military.
While lost jobs will return, new ones, however, won’t be created. The “Greatest Depression” has begun. As we have continually reported and Gregory Mannarino continually details, there is no connection between Wall Street and Main Street. Read Greg’s new article, “DEBT MARKET SUPER BUBBLE: A MONSTER.”
On the Market Front
The S&P 500 index closed its best week since November, adding more than 15 points to end at a record 3,886.83. The Dow rose 92.38 points to 31,148.24 and the NASDAQ gained 78.55 points, finishing at 13,856.30.
Yesterday, stocks hit new record highs as hopes that new, larger rounds of monetary methadone, i.e., “stimulus spending” will be injected into the economy.
Investors were calmer this week; the CBOE Volatility Index, a proxy for investors’ anxiety about the future, fell to 22, compared with 37 the week before.
The markets are also upbeat about the outlook for earnings growth and are pinning their optimism to two expectations: COVID vaccines will be the economy’s salvation, and the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero well into the future.
While The Street investors are betting that January’s anemic jobs report will continue to pressure Congress to pass generous stimulus bills that will artificially spur economic growth, the picture on Main Street keeps getting darker.
No Rent, No Money
Due to last September’s eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC that prevented property owners from evicting renters for non-payment, apartment owners are under severe economic pressure: “It’s important to recognize that, after 10 months of severe economic distress, job loss, and decline in rent collections, everyone is hurting,” said Bob Pinnegar, president and CEO of the National Apartment Association, that represents property owners, told CNN today.
Pinnegar also noted that “Without rent, owners can’t afford maintenance or capital improvements necessary” and would not be able to pay their mortgages. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that since mid-January, some ten million renters were behind on their rent. This accounts for between $30 billion to $70 billion in back rent owed to landlords, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition.
We note this reality because, as we have been forecasting, government injections of cheap money into the system will not boost the real economy, and equities staying on artificial highs are unsustainable.
Unreality
The GameStop game, which had artificially juiced the stock up 400 percent in just one week, fell below $50 a share today as the short squeeze squeezed out. (See our GameStop special report in this issue, “THE GAMES CONTINUE.”)
GOLD/SILVER. After taking a hit last week, Gold is trading back in the mid-$1,800 per ounce range, while silver, boosted by the GameStop Gang, is trading in at $27.30 per ounce. We maintain our forecast for gold to move above $2,100 per ounce and silver to push about $50 per ounce, essentially due to the unprecedented trillions of dollars central banks across the globe are pumping into economies and equity markets to artificially prop them up.
Thus, the more cheap money central banks print, the further the value of the currency falls and the higher safe-haven precious metals rise.
BITCOIN. Last week, bitcoin was trading at $35,781, up some $3,781 from the previous week. We wrote that the cryptocurrency had not broken below our downward break-out point and “still finding strength despite its pullback from its recent $41,000 high.”
Bitcoin spiked on the news Friday that Elon Musk changed his personal Twitter bio to #bitcoin, pushing it to $38,566 on Friday.
Next, Tesla, Inc., of which Musk is CEO, announced in its latest annual report that they bought $1.5 billion of the digital currency and would soon start accepting bitcoin as payment for its products.
As we go to press, Bitcoin is trading at $47,300.
Warning
As we have long been forecasting, there will be a push back by Banksters to reign in the power of cryptocurrencies as they go from “DIRTY CASH TO DIGITAL TRASH.”
We reported that the chief of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, called for international bitcoin regulation last month claiming bitcoin is “a highly speculative asset, which has conducted some funny business and some interesting and totally reprehensible money laundering activity.”
At the end of January, the government of India said it will introduce legislation that “seeks to prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India, however, it allows for certain exceptions to promote the underlying technology of cryptocurrency and its uses.”
The “Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill” will instead “create a facilitative framework for creation of the official digital currency to be issued by the Reserve Bank of India.”
TREND FORECAST: We maintain our 5 January forecast for bitcoin: “The downward breakout point will be hit should the price fall below $25,000 per coin.” On the upside, should bitcoin again break past $41,000 into the $42,000 per coin range, we forecast it will spike above $50,000 per coin.
OIL. Brent crude hit a 13-month high today, supported by OPEC+ cuts, high expectations that the U.S. money-pumping stimulus will generate demand, and the weaker dollar… the lower the dollar goes, the less it costs to buy commodities using other currencies.
“Support seems robust and the narrative sees the oil market swiftly burning through the remaining crisis-surplus, potentially running into tightness later this year,” Norbert Rücker, an analyst at Swiss bank Julius Baer, told Reuters.
We had forecast Brent Crude would trade in the $50 per barrel range in 2021. But the wild cards being played, such as the OPEC+ cutting supply deal and massive stimulus packages, have artificially pushed oil prices higher.
Air travel, cruise ships, tourism, daily commuting to work, rising unemployment, etc., will not increase oil demand. In fact, these factors will diminish demand. However, as evidenced by the OPEC+ agreement and how the gamblers play the markets, economic fundamentals have been overwritten by market speculation.
TREND FORECAST: As we have been warning, should military tensions escalate in the Middle East, Brent Crude may well spike above $80 bbl, which, in turn, will crash equity markets, push precious metals higher, and rapidly push economies deeper into the “Greatest Depression.”
