Yesterday, the Dow closed up 911 points on continued hopes of reopening the locked economy and hopes for progress on a COVID virus vaccine.
Today, the Dow fell nearly 400 points after a report questioned the results for that potential coronavirus vaccine.
NASDAQ dropped 0.54 percent.
Brent Crude fell a bit, closing at $34.51 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate rose 54 cents to close at $32.36.
Gold gained $13.80 closing at $1,745.80.
Bitcoin was down $52 from yesterday but still at the high $9,000 range, trading at $9,673.54.
TREND FORECAST: On 6 June 2019, when gold was at $1,332, Gerald Celente accurately predicted the beginning of “The Gold Bull Run.” It’s now up $400 since then, almost a third. Celente has also forecast that if the metal closes above $1,740 and maintains that range for several weeks, it will keep running to $2,000 and higher.
TREND FORECAST: Oil prices surged to two month highs not only because global production has been cut, but also because on-hand inventories of crude are starting to shrink for the first time in months due to anticipation of increased demand as traffic increases in China, its factories resume production, and lockdowns around the world ease up.
Shrinking the inventories of unsold oil on hand will be key to sustaining any oil price increase because the world’s oil demand already is contracting by more than nine million barrels a day compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, according to the International Energy Agency.
Oil’s rise in price also will be capped for months to come as people continue to work from home, avoid airplanes, and save their money instead of spending it on trips and new factory-made gadgets.
Moreover, while Wall Street is selling the recent rally as “bullish,” with Brent Crude selling at $35 a barrel, oil-rich nations, both rich and poor, will suffer deep economic contraction at such low-level prices as will oil companies and production-related industries.
Therefore, we agree with the assessment from Commerzbank that, “Despite all the euphoria, however, we believe that caution is still advisable: it will probably take some years before demand recovers to its pre-crisis level.”
TREND FORECAST: The 500 companies in the S&P index are due to show a collective 13.6 percent drop in earnings in this year’s first quarter. But that’s only the beginning.
Corporate forecasts indicate a crash in profits of 40.6 percent in the second quarter, 23 percent in the third, and 11.4 percent in the fourth.
Politicians and economists forecasting a V-shaped recovery or quick economic rebound to pre-pandemic levels are indulging in wishing, not analyzing.
By all the evidence, as reported in the Trends Journal over the past year, the world’s economy was slowing into recession before politicians shut it down completely. Any recovery from the shutdown will be lengthened and complicated by the underlying factors that were affecting the global economy by the end of 2019.
TREND FORECAST: The economic devastation ahead will be unparalleled. The “Greatest Depression” has begun.
With no exit strategies for the COVID War politicians launched that has wrecked economies, bankrupted business, and ruined lives, the media cheers of reopening, with a gaggle of made up restrictions, will not restore Gross Domestic Product growth at sustainable levels.
And now, with more work at home orders extending into 2021, or permanently, commercial real estate will plummet.
Indeed, the future downturn is evidenced in the S&P 500’s financial, real estate, and utility sectors, among others, that are now in correction territory, defined as a decline of 10 percent or more in stock prices from recent highs.
The S&P overall has pulled back by only about 3 percent from its 29 April peak.
The S&P Small Cap 600 index has dropped 12 percent since 29 April.
The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks is down 9.1 percent, nearing correction territory.
