Trendpost

Bankism will grow in 2015. For solvency and reputational reasons, central and private banks need, and will collaborate to keep, the cost of money as low as possible. This will keep bond and stock prices propped up on average for the first half of 2015, but with scarier daily swings to the downside. The tide of rising volatility will accelerate as intermittent rate-hike rumors surface and the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China run through their annual QE plans.

When rates finally do rise, global stock markets will tank. Leveraged loans will default, spreading losses through the big banks, especially, but not exclusively, in oil and gas industry loans that are also being slammed by declining oil prices. This means CLOs will blow up and inflame a worldwide credit crunch that will cause credit spreads to widen dramatically as liquidity shrivels up.

The Fed may step in with a QE4 if the situation gets really dicey, which is likely. Politicians will scratch their heads and wonder why big banks are still too big to fail, and big enough to cause another global Depression. And the whole cycle will begin again.

Leave a Reply

Skip to content