Trend forecast

An oil-price shock, whether or not triggered by rising prospects for war or geo-political unrest in the Middle East, will rattle markets weak and strong across the globe. We affirm our forecast that the Trump stock market rally is over and that global economies, particularly in China, India, Europe and Emerging Markets will continue to shift downward. Thus, should oil prices spike above $100 per barrel, which will occur should Middle East conflicts escalate, not only will markets crash, so too will currencies, including the euro, rupee, yen, yuan and other fiat currencies of deeply indebted nations. And gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, which has been on a down trend, has the potential to spike above $2,000 an ounce or more.

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