Trend Forecast

If the election were held today, and Hillary Clinton survives the cash-for-influence scandal, we forecast Clinton as the winner. On issues of gay rights, women’s rights and abortion, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina and Huckabee will find weak support among a sizable portion of women voters. With all the candidates, including Clinton, on the same war page and none presenting strong and unique economic policies to truly create jobs and increase wages, what separates Clinton from the guys is the girls. (“Chelsea Clinton: Female president will make a ‘substantive difference’,” USA Today, April 10, 2015.) In the 2008 presidential election, 70.4 million women cast ballots vs. 60.7 million men. In the 2012 race, Obama won the two-party vote among female voters by 12 points, 56 percent to 44 percent.

As for Bernie Sanders, Colonel Sanders would have a better shot at winning the Democratic nomination. With marginal name recognition, moderate stage-performance skills and a pittance of a campaign war chest, barring a major Hillary scandal, Sanders won’t get the nomination.