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In the wake of NATO’s opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has bandied fears of an “Indo-Pacific NATO” that would unite Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. to block China’s influence along the Pacific Rim.
Seizing on that idea, China is strengthening its relationships with countries in its own neighborhood.
“The Indo-Pacific strategy is as dangerous as the NATO strategy of eastward expansion in Europe,” vice-foreign minister Le Yucheng said in a 19 March public statement.
“If allowed to go unchecked, it would bring unimaginable consequences and ultimately push the Asia-Pacific [region] over the edge of an abyss,” he said.
On 26 March, foreign minister Wang Yi spoke to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Pakistan. He highlighted the $400 billion that China has invested in 54 Islamic countries, all of which abstained in the UN’s vote to condemn Russia’s Ukraine attack.
Just as the Ukraine war has united the West, China now seeks to augment its alliance with Russia by tightening its bonds with countries in the Mideast and developing world, where much of the world’s mineral wealth lies.
“China is building this sphere of influence which makes its self-reliance strategy much more credible,” Alicia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, told the Financial Times.
China sees Russia as the center of that sphere.
If the U.S. were to try to force China in a policy dispute—the takeover of Taiwan, for example—“China won’t be afraid of an energy blockade and our food supply would be secure [and] so will our other raw materials” because of its alliance with Russia, HuXijin, former editor of the state-controlled Global Times newspaper, wrote in a recent column.
“We must constantly boost our own strength to make the U.S. feel that having a conflict with China is more and more unbearable.
“Russia is China’s most crucial partner to achieve this goal,” he added.
However, Russia would be unable to replace the advanced technology China now receives from the West, Dan Wang at consulting firm Gavekal Dragonomics said to the FT.
If the West imposed the same sanctions on China that it has on Russia, “they would be devastating for China’s ability to remain a manufacturing superpower,” he said.
As a result, China must craft a delicate balance between maintaining relations with Russia to import its food, fossil fuels, and raw materials, but also keeping on good terms with the U.S. to continue its access to technology.
“The idea was always to build up China’s diversification and self-reliance as fast as possible,” Andrew Gilholm at consulting firm Control Risks, explained in comments to the FT.
Now “the motivation has gone to another level,” he said. “This almost must be seen as a national security issue and an existential one at that.”
TRENDPOST: China’s tightening alliances with nearby nations highlights an aspect of Self-Sufficient economies, one of our Top 2022 Trends.
China is using its economic might to bind other nations more closely to it, doing more to ensure that those nations will remain trading partners that can leave China less reliant on geopolitical adversaries and competitors.
In denunciation of China’s alliances and refusal to condemn Russia, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today that “We see that China has been unwilling to condemn Russia’s aggression and has joined Moscow in questioning the right of nations to choose their own path,” and that democracies must stand against “authoritarian powers.”
Russia maintains its demand that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join NATO, while Ukraine claims the Russian invasion was unprovoked and they were not intent upon retaking the two separatist republics by force.