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The media’s constant refrain of rising COVID virus cases, even as the death rate declines, has thwarted investors and government officials’ expectations that the U.S. economy would bounce back strongly in 2020’s second half.
With “must wear mask” rules being enforced in scores of states, the hopes of businesses… retail, hospitality, restaurants – throwing open their doors and consumers spending freely has diminished.
Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and general factotum, famously said the U.S. economy would be “rocking in July.” Administration officials continue to insist the economy will rebound strongly in the second half of the year.
And King Cuomo, America’s beloved New York Governor, who’s state has by far the highest COVID-19 deaths (thanks in part to his forcing virus-infected elderly out of hospitals and into nursing homes), predicted in June, “You want to talk about a turnaround – this one, my friends, is going to go in the history books.”
More accurately, the “fiction books.”
Since that time, Cuomo has re-locked down business segments in New York City and imposed strict quarantine rules on visitors from 31 states.
New Jersey and Connecticut have also imposed the 31-state quarantine regulations.
A 15 July survey revealed an additional 1.3 million Americans out of work than in the week before. Business activity also declined in mid-July, according to Safegraph, a bussiness data firm.
Amazon has extended its work-at-home order for eligible employees from October through the end of the year. Delta Airlines shrank its original plan for fall flights, and major banks have increased their pool of money to cover loans that go bad.
Broadway theaters will remain dark for the rest of the year, restaurants allowed to serve guests outdoors are bracing for cold weather, and concerts and sports games are on hold indefinitely.
The $600 weekly federal unemployment benefit has propped up consumer spending, analysts say, but that will expire at the end of this month. Other federal business support programs are winding down as an estimated 18 million U.S. workers are still jobless and the economy remains partially shut down.
But, as reported today, the free money pumping scheme is set in motion to resume next month.
The business shutdowns show no signs of easing anytime soon.
“Our assumption is that we’re going into re-lockdown in the fall,” said Karl Smith, vice-president of the Tax Foundation in Washington, D.C.
TREND FORECAST: Regardless of government stimulus, the commercial residential sectors will experience declines as businesses without customers and workers without jobs close down and move out, permanently limiting career paths for millions and transforming industries such as airlines, retail, restaurants, and the hospitality sectors.
TREND FORECAST: Barely mentioned in the mainstream media is the extensive loss of tax revenue nations, states, and cities will incur as millions of businesses go out of business and tens of millions of citizens lose their jobs.
To offset the losses, politicians will raise taxes in any feasible manner they can dream of, which in turn will spark tax protests and add another platform to newly emerging, anti-establishment political parties.

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