Mariusz Blaszczak, the Polish defense minister, announced Thursday that Warsaw will move up to 10,000 additional soldiers to its border with Belarus to “scare away the aggressor so that it does not dare to attack us.”

Poland has been one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine’s war effort against Russia because there is fear in Warsaw that a Russian victory in Ukraine could become a significant security threat. Officials in Warsaw also accuse Minsk of inflaming the situation with tough rhetoric and its embrace of hundreds of Wagner mercenaries since last month. 

Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish prime minister, said Wagner troops were seen near the border and could be preparing a sabotage attack against Poland or Lithuania, the Financial Times reported. 

The paper noted that Lithuania has said it did not seem as though these Wagner forces were positioned near the frontier.  

The 10,000 Polish troops would consist of 4,000 in support of the country’s border guard and 6,000 will be held in reserve. 

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, also announced last week that Russia will fortify its forces along the border, CNN reported. He cited Poland’s move as the key impetus behind the decision.

Warsaw has insisted that the troop presence is intended as only a deterrent, not a provocation.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he asked his prime minister to reach out to Warsaw because he does not want such high levels of animosity at the border.

“We need to talk to the Poles. I told the prime minister to contact them. If they want, we can talk, mend our relations. We are neighbors, and this cannot be chosen, neighbors are given by God,” Lukashenko said, according to Politico.

Paweł Jabłoński, the Polish deputy foreign minister, called Lukashenko’s comments “empty words.”

TRENDPOST: The Trends Journal has reported extensively on Poland’s support of Ukraine, with its own national interest in mind. (See “NATO INFRINGEMENT? POLAND SENDS TROOPS TO THE BORDER AFTER ALLEGATIONS THAT MINSK VIOLATED AIRSPACE” 8 Aug 2023, “POLAND’S RELATIONSHIP WITH UKRAINE TESTED OVER STEPAN BANDERA” 8 Aug 2023, “ZELENSKY PERFORMS DAMAGE CONTROL AFTER SPAT WITH POLAND OVER GRATITUDE” 8 Aug 2023 and “POLAND, SLOVAKIA PUSHING FOR FIGHTER JETS FOR UKRAINE, AS RUSSIA SAY THEY ARE AT WAR” 14 Feb 2023.)

We reported that Poland recently accused Minsk of flying two military helicopters, a Mi-24 and Mi-8, in the area of Bialowieza, just across the border from Belarus. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense called the claim far-fetched and said the motive by Poland is to justify its increased troop presence along the border.

Adding to Poland’s concerns, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Lukashenko, in St. Petersburg earlier this month and they both commented on how the Ukrainian counteroffensive ran up against a brick wall. 

Lukashenko said Wagner fighters were training his military and joked that they were eager to push into Poland, which is about six miles from where Belarusian troops are training with Wagner.

“They are asking to go West, ask me for permission … to go on a trip to Warsaw, to Rzeszow,” Lukashenko said. “But of course, I am keeping them in central Belarus, like we agreed.”

Poland and Lithuania have accused Moscow and Minsk of trying to orchestrate another migrant crisis in hopes of destabilizing the countries, according to SchengenVisaInfo.com. 

The report, citing Polish records, said at least 19,000 people have tried to cross the border into Poland since the start of the year, which is about 3,000 more than last year. 

Tomasz Praga, the head of the Polish border guard, accused Minsk of becoming “a criminal group that is masterminding illegal migration.”

TREND FORECAST: Trends Journal readers know that war and fear sell before an election and benefit the government in charge. 

Poland’s October parliamentary election is in October, and it will be a close one. Watch for the war of words between Warsaw and Minsk to continue until the election and then calm down because—as we have reported in great detail—Poland does not want to fight Russia in a war, but does not mind watching Ukrainians die in an attempt to weaken Russia.