Goldman Sachs has cut its 2021 forecast for U.S. economic growth from 5.7 percent to 5.6 and trimmed its 2022 outlook from a 4.4-percent GDP expansion to a flat 4 percent.
The economy will suffer as the U.S. Federal Reserve gradually ends its $120-billion monthly bond-buying program, in place since March 2020, with the ongoing shortage of computer chips and a more gradual recovery in consumer spending than previously expected also miring the recovery, Goldman predicted.
The lingering COVID virus also remains an overall pall on the economy, the bank said, especially as remote workers tend to spend less on business attire and commuter-related products and services.
Goldman also shaved its fourth-quarter outlook for this quarter and the next from 5 percent to 4.5, cut its expectation for next year’s second quarter from 4.5 to 4 percent, but raised its view of 2022’s third-quarter from 3 to 3.5 percent.
TREND FORECAST: What will bring down the U.S. economy into Dragflation—negative GDP growth and rising inflation—will be rising interest rates. As we have long forecast, when Fed rates climb above 1 percent, equities and real estate markets will sharply decline from their record highs.
And even before they hit that tipping point, even when Fed rates go up .50 percent, equities, real estate and the economy will sharply decline.
What is also neglected in the “establishment” economic forecasts are wild card events, be they man made or made by nature. And with the world in COVID War turmoil, the odds of wild cards being played are at decade highs.