NEW DATA SHOWS FALTERING ECONOMY

In the week ending 15 August, 1.1 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits, 135,000 more than in the previous week.
Also, 543,000 self-employed persons, contractors, and other workers not eligible for state unemployment insurance applied for support to the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Program. More than 11 million people were enrolled in that program in early August.
The unemployment figure indicates that many companies are still laying off workers and contractors even as other businesses are hiring as the economy tries to recover.
Economists had expected the number of new claims to fall, not rise, in part because the federal $600 weekly unemployment benefit ended with July, removing an incentive for people to file.
Also, new claims for unemployment benefits had fallen in previous consecutive weeks.
Fewer jobs were posted in July than in June and several large companies, including Boeing, warned of layoffs ahead.
Small businesses showed no improvement in the number of people employed or the number of hours employees worked, reported Homebase, a small-business service firm.
About half the people still out work say they do not expect to be called back to their old jobs, according to a New York Times survey.
Employers called about 9.3 million people back to work when shutdowns ended in May and June, but then discovered there was less demand for their products than they had expected.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits remains well above the highest numbers recorded during the Great Recession or at any time since the 1930s.
Still, that number declined to about 14.8 million for the week ended 8 August, the lowest number since April, when 22 million workers were idle.
Also, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing index, which tracks factory activity in its region, fell from 24.1 in July to 17.2 in August. The lower number is still positive but analysts had expected the index not to dip below 20.
Although most retail businesses capable of reopening have done so, consumer visits to stores and restaurants remains 24 percent below last year’s level, according to data analyzed by the New York Times.
TREND FORECAST: Unemployment data, which may be far worse than the “official” numbers according to Shadow Government Statistics, reveals the real economy continues its decline. 
America is in the first stages of the “Greatest Depression.” Although Washington and the Federal Reserve will pump more monetary methadone, i.e., “stimulus,” into Wall Street and Main Street to keep the equity and economic bubbles inflated, we maintain our forecast for extreme market volatility throughout the year… with a high potential for a market crash in 2020.