MYANMAR’S MILITARY STILL IN CHARGE. NO U.S. PUSHBACK

The U.S. and China showed little interest to collide over who they believe should be the credentialed representative from Myanmar at the United Nations and agreed to block the military junta’s envoy from addressing the General Assembly that took place last week in New York.

The agreement was seen as a stinging blow to the junta that has been trying to seize international legitimacy, according to Foreign Policy. Part of the agreement required Kyaw Moe Tun, the holdover diplomat from deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s team, to keep his mouth shut during last week’s general assembly. (He was allowed to take part in other functions at the event.)

As we have been reporting in the Trends Journal, since the 1 February coup and arrest of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets to fight for democracy. The leader is reported to have won by a landslide, the junta claims the election was rife with fraud.

Al Jazeera, citing the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, reported that about 1,080 people have been killed in the country since the military takeover and 6,000 have been detained.
(See “U.N. TAKES ACTION AGAINST MYANMAR RULERS” and “PROTESTS CONTINUE, POVERTY RISING.”)

Kyaw Moe Tun struck a defiant tone and said in an interview that the seat will not be taken by someone from the military, The Wall Street Journal reported. He brushed off not being able to make a speech at the General Assembly.

“There will be a lot of occasions for me to deliver many, many statements—there will be committees—that’s very important to me and to the country,” he said.

The International Federation for Human Rights earlier this month issued an open letter in support of keeping Kyaw Moe Tun’s credentials in place.

The letter called the November 2020 election “free and fair,” and said it was observed by “accredited international election monitoring bodies. The junta in control of the country seized power by force and its citizens have staged protests and over 400,000 civil servants and private sector employees have been on strike since the coup.

“There is a real risk that complacency from U.N. member states could result in the Myanmar people being robbed of their rightful voice at the U.N., or even in the military junta receiving official U.N. accreditation as representatives of the people they have murdered and tortured so mercilessly,” Khin Ohmar, the founder of Progressive Voice, which was one of the group’s that signed the letter, said in a statement.

The Journal’s report pointed out that the U.N. has a nine-member credentials committee, which includes the U.S. and China. The committee is scheduled to meet in November when the issue will be discussed again. The report said some countries are more forceful than others when it comes to the support for Kyaw Moe Tun.

TREND FORECAST: As we reported in our 22 June issue, Kyaw Moe Tun is seen as a rogue UN ambassador. CNN said he is essentially “flying solo” when he flashes the three-fingered salute and—in previous meetings—urged the UN to restore democracy using “any means necessary.”

Unfortunately, he better get used to flying solo because if he thinks the help he’ll need is going to come from the Biden administration, we have a bridge to sell him. President Biden was seen by world leaders as the anti-Trump, and a “return to normal” in terms of U.S. diplomacy. 

Not only is Myanmar not on the mind of Americans, like a “Yemen”, their internationally limited minds don’t even know what a “Myanmar” is.  Thus, there is not much of a political win to be had for Biden to support the revolutionaries. And we maintain our forecast that China will exert more influence in Naypyitaw and will eventually demand that the UN recognizes the junta.