As we have been reporting in the Trends Journal, since 1 February, tens of thousands of protesters in Myanmar have taken to the streets to fight for democracy after a military coup overturned recent election results and arrested the civilian leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who reportedly won by a landslide this past November.
On Wednesday, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners announced that more than 1,000 people have been killed by security forces since the coup, the Associated Press reported. The country has also arrested dozens of journalists, including two on Friday, Reuters reported.
Sithu Aung Myint, a columnist for Frontier, a news site, was arrested and charged with sedition and spreading false information, the report said. She has been critical of the junta.
On 30 March, in our report titled, “MYANMAR: ANOTHER DAY, MORE BLOODSHED,” we noted that Russia announced that it hoped to strengthen military ties with Myanmar after top military officials met in Naypyitaw. Reuters said the meeting “is the firmest sign yet of Russia’s support for the new military rulers in Myanmar.”
Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore’s foreign minister, said the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not been effective in stopping the violence in the country, Al Jazeera reported. The report said since the coup, the country’s economy has collapsed and its humanitarian crisis worsened amid a surge in COVID-19 cases.
On 10 August, China announced the transfer of $6 million to Myanmar’s government to fund 21 projects, Reuters reported. The report said that China has remained relatively quiet after the coup. But as we had noted, Beijing would not support a citizens uprising against the military.
Rough Road Ahead
It has not been smooth sailing for the Tatmadaw, the military in the country. They have faced insurgencies on many fronts and are spread thin after fighting multiple fronts, (See: “YOUTH REVOLUTION 2021: MYANMAR MILITARY VS. THE PEOPLE.”)
WarOnTheRocks.com reported. “A nationwide civil disobedience movement has confronted the military, bringing the economy, health, and education systems to the brink of collapse,” the report said.
The persistent protests that have sabotaged the country’s economy and entrenched insurgencies have hurt the junta’s grab at control.
“Nowhere is this more apparent than the military successes that the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has achieved under the coup, and the KIA’s potential to threaten local military targets of national significance,” The Diplomat reported. “The KIA is uniquely positioned to hurt the Tatmadaw both economically and politically by capturing the jade mining hub of Hpakant and Kachin State’s capital of Myitkyina, dealing potentially major blows to the military.”
TOP TREND FOR 2021: “YOUTH REVOLUTION”: As we had forecast as one of our “Top Trends for 2021,” the uprisings and revolutions that were sweeping the world before the COVID War will accelerate dramatically, as billions of people sink deeper into economic despair.. and the youth, who live in despair now and face a future of misery, will be leading the charge.
TREND FORECAST: We had forecast that despite the protests, military rule will continue in Myanmar and threats by the UN, the U.S., and other nations will achieve nothing in terms of bringing so-called “Democracy” to Myanmar.
Again, as trend forecasters, we call it as we see it, and not the way we want it.
Furthermore, the more outside countries put pressure on the Myanmar government—be they in sanctions or supporting rebel movements—the greater the ruling government will strengthen its ties with its Chinese neighbor.