Executives and analysts at major U.S. banks see the nation entering a recession. The only difference among them is when.

Europe has already fallen into a recession that may last for years and the U.S. will follow in the second half of 2023 with a shorter and shallower setback, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said last week at a Goldman Sachs investment conference.

Bank of America analysts also are forecasting a recession next year.

JPMorgan Chase, the largest American bank, warned that unemployment will rise, peaking at 5 percent in 2024 after sparking a “shallow and short-lived” recession late next year, according to a statement last week at the Goldman conference by Marianne Lake, co-CEO of consumer and community banking for JPMorgan. 

“The consumer is still spending money, still sits on cash balances well above pre-Covid levels, but I believe we’re at a bit of an inflection point” that will “create a change in behaviors and a slowdown,” U.S. Bancorp CEO Andy Cecere told the conference.

The U.S. economy is likely to tame inflation without falling into recession, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon predicted at the Dallas Citizens Council’s annual meeting last week, but could still easily go through a slight recession.

“Hope for the best but prepare for a bumpier environment,” he added.

TREND FORECAST: Following the Christmas season—in which the only measure of importance is how well retail sales did and not a peep about the meaning of the birth of the Prince of Peace—consumer sales will steadily decrease during the first quarter of 2023, thus ringing in the New Year of Recession that most of The Street sees coming but will stay muted until the holiday season is over.

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