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Last week peaceful protests broke out in Kazakhstan when masses took to the streets to protest the removal of price controls on liquified petroleum gas that people use to fuel their cars.
The protests turned violent when, according to government officials, the demonstrations were hijacked by terrorists and organized crime groups that attacked the police and government security forces.
As reported by RT, Russia’s ambassador in Washington Anatoly Antonov believes that as a result of the U.S. exiting Afghanistan, the country has been overrun by “radicals manifesting dehumanizing ideologies.” He said, “Thousands of jihadists and marauders tried to ‘undermine’” the constitutional order. “They keep on inflicting damage to public and private property. I’d like to note that all this is happening after the American escape from Afghanistan and the rapid development of extremist ideas in the region.”
Antonov said the protests were “color revolution,” assisted by “terrorists,” as well as “thugs and robbers.”
In response to the violence, the country’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, gave his security forces shoot-to-kill orders. Following the resignation of Nursultan Nazarbayev, who resigned on 19 March 2019 after ruling the nation for 29 years, Tokayev became acting president.
“Those who do not surrender will be eliminated,” he said. “Law enforcement and the army have been given the order by me to shoot to kill without warning.”
These protesters have also lashed out against corruption in the government and unemployment in the oil-rich country that is the world’s ninth-largest by landmass. CNN reported that the country is rich in foreign investment due to its natural resources but “many ordinary Kazakhs feel left behind.” It was notable that the protests continued to rage even after Tokayev ordered new price controls.
“For years, the government has relentlessly persecuted peaceful dissent, leaving the Kazakhstani people in a state of agitation and despair,” Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, told CNN.
The protests were chaotic and resulted in attacks on government buildings in Almaty, the country’s most populous city. Tokayev described the protests as an organized attack by an army of 20,000 but said they have been largely snuffed out by a “counter-terrorism operation” that was backed by Russian troops, the Financial Times reported. He thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for his assistance and China also offered to help him regain control.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Tokayev has been trying to strike a balancing act with Moscow, where he tries to distance himself domestically, but makes a point of showing the close bonds when it comes to foreign policy. Kazakhstan gained independence from the former Soviet Union 30 years ago.
Who knows What?
There were rumors that those fighting in the street were proxies for feuding factions of the country’s political elite, The New York Times reported. Danil Kislov, a Russian expert on Central Asia who runs a news outlet focused on the region, told the paper that there is speculation that the clashes are the result of a “desperate struggle for power” between those loyal to Tokayev and those behind his 81-year-old predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev.”
The Times pointed out that Tokayev fired Nazarbayev’s nephew from his post as deputy head of the security service. Kislov said the nephew seemed to have played a major role in the unrest in the world’s largest uranium producer.
Nazarbayev, the former president, was credited for never relying on Moscow for domestic security assistance. One analyst told The Journal that Tokayev has “undermined this, and he has insulted the increasingly nationalistic swaths of the Kazakh population.”
“This means that the security situation could escalate really quickly if Russian troops were seen to turn on the Kazakh population,” the analyst said.
Tokayev called on the CSTO, or the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which is seen as Russia’s response to NATO, to help restore order, The Journal reported.
Tokayev said the protesters who do not surrender “will be eliminated.”
“Law enforcement and the army have been given the order by me to shoot to kill without warning,” he said.
There have been internet blackouts from within the country and information about developments were not immediately clear.
Reports on Sunday said 164 people were killed in the clashes, including a 4-year-old girl. Eighteen police officers were killed and 3,700 people were arrested.
“Tokayev had to end this schizophrenic dual power in the country,” Arkady Dubnov, a Central Asia expert at the Varnegie Moscow Center, told The Washington Post. “He never became a fully empowered president because his hands were tied…[and] it was clear that two centers of power are in place.”
Tokayev made it clear that it was his belief that these “bandits” were organized and there could be no negotiations with them. The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board wrote that identifying legitimate protesters as terrorists and bandits is “the classic response of post-Soviet dictators facing genuine, widespread discontent.”
Nazarbayev urged those in the country to rally around his successor.
Beijing may also take note of Moscow’s quick decision to provide security, the paper reported. Kazakhstan plays an important role in China’s Belt and Road initiative. Niva Yau, a senior fellow at OSCE Academy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, told the paper that the danger for China is to have “Russia control such an important transit and trade route.” The fear for Beijing is a world where Moscow can impose tariffs on oil and gas that flows through Kazakhstan to China.
Yesterday, Vladimir Putin claimed victory in his sending troops to defend Kazakhstan from what he called foreign-backed terrorists. In a virtual summit of the CSTO military alliance of ex-Soviet states, Mr. Putin said his forces were successful in preventing “the undermining of the foundations of the state, the complete degradation of the internal situation in Kazakhstan, and block terrorists, criminals, looters and other criminal elements.”
“Of course, we understand the events in Kazakhstan are not the first and far from the last attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of our states from the outside,” he said. “The measures taken by the CSTO have clearly shown we will not allow the situation to be rocked at home.”
TREND FORECAST: As we detail in this article, different sides have different stories as to who are the forces behind the Kyrgyzstan protests and why. However, the bottom line will be the U.S. and its European allies vs. Russia, with the NATO alliance supporting the opposition forces and Russia backing up the ruling government.
Furthermore, beyond Kyrgyzstan, protests against rising prices—be they fuel or food—will escalate across the globe as inflation keeps rising. And, as protests escalate and civil unrest intensifies, the migrant wave, which is one of our Top Trends for 2022, will intensify as people do what they can to escape the violence, government corruption, poverty, crime and violence.