With a recession still likely, gold’s price will break through $2,000 later this year and set new records in 2024 as the U.S. Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates in next year’s second quarter, analysts at megabank JPMorgan Chase predicted.

With interest rates falling, the search for higher yields will become a “significant driver” of interest in the metal, the analysts wrote. JPMorgan sees bullion fetching $2,075 per ounce at the end of next year.

Gold’s price has gained about 15 percent in the past 12 months, driven in a major way by central banks’ unusually large purchases, as we reported in “Central Banks Are Grabbing Gold” (8 Nov 2022). Money managers also have increased their allocations to gold this year. In May, gold came close to its all-time high of $2,075.47, set in 2020.

“We’re in a prime place where gold ownership and long allocation to gold and silver is something that will perform as we look to the next 12 to 18 months,” Greg Shearer, the bank’s chief commodities researcher, said in a 26 July press briefing.

The metals are “agnostic” about whether the U.S. enters a recession, he added, while stocks and commodities tied to manufacturing, such as iron or aluminum, can rise and fall with economic conditions.

“There’s an eagerness to buy in and diversify allocations away from currencies,” Shearer added, because currency values can be battered by geopolitical events.

TREND FORECAST: We maintain our trend forecast that the future of gold prices is simple: When the Federal Reserve starts lowering interest rates the value of the dollar will drop. The deeper the dollar falls, the higher gold prices will rise.