Human Waves

Throughout 2016 and for years to come, millions of refugees will flee war-torn nations looking for safety. Millions of migrants will leave economically depressed countries looking for work.

Trends are born, they grow, mature, reach old age and die. The Great Migration trend, born some five years ago, was ignored by the media and ridiculed by politicians:

The Great Migration

In March 2011, the first wave of the human tsunami washed ashore. Tens of thousands of desperate refugees fleeing North Africa and the Middle East made landfall in the nearest Italian port. By mid-April, the UN reported that more than a half-million people had fled Libya in the preceding two months and that the pace of the exodus was picking up.

Without means to cope with the multitude, Italy asked its European Union allies for a helping hand but got the cold shoulder instead. “Italy must live up to its responsibilities,” said Germany’s interior minister, Hans-Peter Friedrich. “Italy is a large country… they must negotiate with Tunisia.”

Outraged at the callous attitude, Italian Interior Minister Roberto Maroni mused, “I wonder if it makes sense to stay in the European Union… Meglio sola che male accompagnata.”

Or as George Washington used to say, “Better to be alone than in bad company.”

Resolutely oblivious to the buildup to “The 1st Great War of the 21st Century,” politicians and the media proved unaware of the effects of the Great Migration that would be set in motion by the socio-political/economic upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa.

As wars worsened and economic conditions deteriorated, millions of displaced persons were set in motion seeking safe haven and gainful employment or both… (Trends Journal, Spring 2011.)

Almost five years later, “politicians and the media” are still unaware of and remain unprepared for “the effects of the Great Migration… set in motion by the socio-political/economic upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa” — upheavals created by Americans, Europeans and the Arab League by their wars, invasions, bombings, mass murder and mass destruction (see “The Last World War,” page 10).

And, although economies of resource-rich emerging markets were weakening back in 2011, social unrest, economic deprivation and migration flows were mitigated by record-high commodity prices. Now that commodity prices have plummeted, on average, to 15-year lows, migrant waves from Tierra del Fuego to the Cape of Good Hope will flow north to find work and a better life.

Publisher’s note: What we have been forecasting for years has just made headline news. The head honcho of the Davos World Economic Forum proclaimed, “Look how many countries in Africa, for example, depend on income from oil exports,” Klaus Schwab said at the start of the WEF’s annual meeting in January.

However, unable to look beyond oil and further than Africa, Schwab proclaimed, “Now imagine 1 billion inhabitants; imagine they all move north.”

Yes, we could imagine and are capable of looking beyond Africa! And beyond “imagine,” we are capable of forecasting a great global recession and billions of migrants escaping massive poverty and civil unrest, seeking jobs and security.

Beyond “imagine,” a true study of facts reveals tens of millions of refugees will flee war-torn nations throughout the Middle East and Africa that are, and will be, bombed to destruction.

However, those realities and trend forecasts were either off-topic or beyond the Davos heads’ imagination.

Beyond oil, the furthest the Davos chief could see was, “The normal citizen today is overwhelmed by the complexity and rapidity of what’s happening, not only in the political world, but also the technological field.”

Yes, we are well aware of technological advances. “Breeding Robots,” one of our Top Trends for 2016, is a major part of changing technology that will cost jobs and replace workers. However, the wars and economic destabilization causing the Human Waves are much greater than the “complexity and rapidity of what’s happening… in the technological field.”

Editor’s note: In the 1940s, at the height of World War II, with Europe in flames, religious persecutions raging and refugee tides swelling, there were some 2.3 billion people on Earth. Since, some 5 billion have been added. Thus, as the Human Wave trend accelerates, the volatility and hostility between those leaving their homeland and the natives of nations where they wish to settle will spike. For example, declaring multiculturalism “a failure,” former French President Nicolas Sarkozy said, “Of course, we must all respect differences, but we do not want… a society where communities co-exist side by side.”   TJ  



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