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Fighting broke out again in Ethiopia between Tigrayan forces and troops from Addis Ababa last week, bringing an end to the months-long ceasefire in the region after a bloody conflict.
The Trends Journal has featured detailed coverage of the war since it was launched in November 2020. (See for example “ANOTHER NOBEL PEACE PRIZE WINNER GOES TO WAR,” “ETHIOPIA’S TIGRAY WAR HORRORS,” “ANOTHER ETHNIC MASSACRE IN ETHIOPIA,” “ETHIOPIA: A WAR OF DISASTER,” “ETHIOPIA WAR=TIGRAY SLAUGHTER” and “HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN TIGRAY DETERIORATES. ADDIS ABABA: “FU” UN”).
As we reported when the war broke out Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government launched the major offensive in the region because Tigrayans held an election in September 2020 in violation of a countrywide voting ban due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
Abiy, the 2019 recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, blamed Tigray leadership for violating “the constitution and endangering the constitutional system.”
The ceasefire spanned five months and both sides denied taking the first shot. Ethiopia said in a statement that Tigrayan fighters ignored “peace alternatives” and “officially violated the ceasefire. The Financial Times reported that Tigrayan fighters said they were forced to defend themselves.
A senior official from Ethiopia told the paper that there was no incentive for government forces to fire the first shot, because it would “be a significant reversal of everything we have been trying for the past six months to get the economy right, not to mention the tragic loss of young lives.”
Last month, the UN’s World Food Program, released a report that without immediate funding, 750,000 refugees will have ‘nothing to eat.’
William Davison, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, told Voice of America that stability in Ethiopia is of great concern to the U.S.
“Above and beyond the desire to bring about peace because of its intrinsic benefits to Ethiopia because of the devastation the conflict is causing,” Davison said. “The U.S. is, of course, concerned about the regional and geopolitical implications of increasing instability in Ethiopia, a critical country in the Horn of Africa, which is an important strategic reason itself.”
The report noted that some Ethiopians are suspicious of the U.S.’s intention and believe Washington is favorable to fighters in Tigray. Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, said “a return to active conflict would result in widespread suffering, human rights abuses and further economic hardships.”
TREND FORECAST: The Tigray war, launched by the Ethiopian government, has been essentially blacked out from the rest of the world. There are no news reporters in the Tigray region providing firsthand information, thus the true extent of the war, how many have been killed, and the damage done are only estimates.
About 20 million people in the Horn of Africa face a food crisis. Besides the food crisis, Tigrayans have been chased by ethnic Amhara militias in what the U.S. has called an ethnic cleansing campaign, according to The New York Times.
The violence and food crisis that these Tigrayans face will never get the attention it deserves on corporate news outlets that will run story after story about the plight of Ukrainian refugees fleeing from their homeland. So the conflict will continue and thousands more will starve to death.
This war will continue to rage. The longer it lasts, more people will be escaping in efforts to find safe-haven nations.
As economic conditions deteriorate across the continent, there will be strong anti-immigration populist movements in Europe to stop the flow of African nationals who will risk their lives to leave nations wracked by civil unrest, poverty, crime, government corruption and violence.