As we have been reporting in the Trends Journal, last month, in an effort to consolidate his power, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched an offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which threatens stability across the broader Horn of Africa.
The conflict has sent over 50,000 Ethiopians fleeing across the border into Sudan, and it has killed thousands of civilians.
It is reported that ethnic militias have formed and have taken part in campaigns of looting, rape, and killings across the Tigray region. The New York Times interviewed refugees from Tigray who described the incident as a “devastating conflict that has become a grisly wellspring of looting, ethnic antagonism, and killings.”
Some of the refugees identified one of the groups that committed the atrocities as Fano, an Amhara ethnic group loyal to the government. The group was accused of ransacking the town Mai-Kadra and slaughtering ethnic Tigrayans with “knives and machetes.”
As we have reported, Tigray has traditionally held a lot of sway in the country of 110 million. However, there have been simmering tensions between Amhara and Tigray since 1991, when Tigrayan forces took over land the Amhara’s had claimed.
Prime Minister Ahmed’s offensive came shortly after a vote was held in the region despite a countrywide ban due to the virus outbreak. Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending the country’s conflict with Eritrea, and he has spoken about bringing the country and its ethnic enclaves together.
TREND FORECAST: As we have forecast, the heavily armed Tigray forces will not surrender to Ethiopian forces, thus military tensions will persist.
With its economy sinking deeper into the “Greatest Depression,” social unrest, violence, and poverty will escalate, which in turn will ramp up a refugee crisis, many of whom will want to escape to safer-haven European nations.
This will in turn boost populist political party movements throughout the Eurozone. These movements will also gain strength as economic conditions and calls for self-sustainability increase.
