EMERGING MARKETS

Shutdown’s Effects Will Weigh on Economies for Years, says World Bank. Economies of the world’s developing nations will not recover from the devastation wrought by the global shutdown for at least five years, according to a new World Bank study.
With the shutdown leading to recessions in these countries, GDP in five years could be 8 percent lower than if the shutdown had not happened, the study concluded, adding that if an emerging economy is oil-dependent, the loss could be as much as 11 percent by 2025.
Compared to the Great Recession, emerging nations’ economies entered the current shutdown with more debt, older populations, less demand for the commodities on which many of the economies are based, and a world roiled by trade tensions, the study noted.
The shutdown “could alter the very structures upon which the growth of recent decades was built,” the study warned, and could cause “prolonged damage to global supply chains, global trade and financial flows, and global collaboration.”
TREND FORECAST: Civil unrest, which was escalating around the world long before government lockdowns destroyed the global economy, will greatly escalate among these already deeply impoverished countries.
As civil wars escalate, refugees will risk their lives to flee to safer havens, which, in turn, will have the nations they flee to impose severe restrictions for entry.