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Once upon a time, before the Bankster Bandits and the Wall Street Gang took full control of the economy, we were able to accurately forecast how the current events were forming future trends. Indeed, Gerald Celente’s and The Trends Journal forecasts of the 1987 stock market crash, the Asian currency crisis, the Dot.com Bust, the Panic of ’08, are etched in stone.
The system has always been marred with elements of corruption, but never as openly obvious as what we’re experiencing today. Never has the rigging of the markets been so blatant, and never has the famous George Carlin saying “It’s One Big Club, and You Ain’t In It,” rang more true.
Therefore, the qualitative facts and quantitative data that are foundations of trend forecasting become secondary factors when the game is rigged. Even the greatest card players can’t beat the dealer with a fixed deck.
Tracking trends is the understanding of where we are and how we got here to see where we are going. In taking a short trip back to what is not ancient history—but long forgotten by the vast majority—is the Panic of ’08 and what caused it.
Primary to the financial chaos that brought on the Great Recession was the dirty depravities of the Bankster Bandits and Wall Street Gang that created the crash with their derivative schemes and the subprime mortgage fiasco.
All of this was made possible by the arrogant, war mongering American President Bill “Slick Willie” Clinton who deregulated the financial industry. Killing the Glass Steagall Act, banks got the green light to gamble in hedge fund trading with derivatives while also demanding more mortgages to support the profitable sale of these derivatives… made possible with subprime interest-only loans to borrowers.
Didn’t See It Coming
Making up any crap they want and feeding it the public, the Fed Banksters invented their quantitative easing scheme, as Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Treasury Secretary during the Reagan administration, noted came to the tune of $8.2 trillion “in new money which was directed or found its way into prices of stocks and bonds, thus enriching the small number who own most of these financial instruments.” (See “The United States Does Not Have an Economy”, by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts in this issue).
The facts are all there for anyone to see and the bond buying scheme is facism (what Benito Mussolini called the merger of state and corporate interests). It is made clear in Gregory Mannarino’s article, “DEATH OF THE SYSTEM: UNLIMITED BOND BUYING”.
And, according to the Levy Institute at Bard College, the Bankster Bandits shoveled out nearly $30 trillion to their Bankster buddies to keep the “Too-Big-to Fail” from failing… while the plantation workers of Slavelandia lost what they owned and fell further down the economic ladder.
To further exemplify the overt corruption that we note, and why honesty, integrity and the facts no longer matter, is today’s headline article from Wall Street on Parade:
“There Are Three Separate Cases in Federal Court Accusing JPMorgan Chase of a Culture of Fraud
“JPMorgan Chase is the largest federally-insured bank in the United States. It is also one of the largest trading houses on Wall Street. That’s the Faustian bargain the Clinton administration entered into with Wall Street when it repealed the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999.
“According to data from the FDIC, as of June 30 of last year, JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. had 4,925 branches in 44 U.S. states holding $2.01 trillion in deposits. Many of those deposits belong to mom and pop savers who have no idea that the bank has admitted to five criminal felony counts since 2014 and has a rap sheet that is the envy of the Gambino crime family.”
Yet, unlike the little people of Slavelandia, who are prosecuted to the fullest when they break the law, the head of the crime-ridden bank, Jamie Dimon who champions himself as a true “patriot”, is exalted by the mainstream media and featured as the money machine man-who-knows-best that Americans should admire.
Telling Lies
Again as we have noted in our trend forecasting lessons, even when the qualitative and quantitative data is accurate and not rigged, there are always the “wild cards,” be they made by humans or nature.
Note: We are not permitted to write “manmade” or “Mother Nature” because we may get blasted by the transgendatory dead-woke mainstream maniacs!
On the human side, the COVID War was launched by dictatorial governments across the planet. It all began in countries the mindless call “democracies.”
Indeed, after Italy was the first to follow the “Chinese Way” by locking down the nation and imposing draconian mandates on society after China launched the COVID War on its Luna New Year, The Year of the Rat in January 2020… the same draconian lockdown mandates were imposed in the U.S. throughout Europe and most of the “free” world.
The financial, spiritual and moral destruction of the ongoing COVID War is incalculable. It has destroyed the lives and livelihoods of billions. But now, rather than blaming the COVID holocaust that has caused economic destruction and emotional slaughter of We the People on a mass scale because of politicians and their bureaucratic “officials”… the media is now blaming the economic ups and downs on “the pandemic.”
For example, an article in yesterday’s Financial Times noted that the once high-flying fintechs are going down. They wrote: “Almost half a trillion dollars has been wiped from the valuation of once high-flying financial technology groups that took advantage of the boom in initial public offerings earlier in the pandemic.”
No, not “earlier in the pandemic.” The virus was not responsible for this trend, it was the politicians, who, without a scintilla or scientific data and based solely on their egotistic political science, launched the COVID War to “flatten the curve” … in the early stages of “the pandemic.”
FT goes on to write that “More than 30 fintechs have listed in the US since the start of 2020, CB Insights data says, as investors flocked to companies they believed could benefit from a long-term shift toward digitization accelerated by the pandemic.”
No, not “accelerated by the pandemic,” it was the COVID War launched by politicians that accelerated digitization by their dictatorial mandates that forbade people to go outside or go to work… forcing all “non-essential” businesses to close down that boomed the fintech and many other sectors of the meta-world.
Wild Cards
Also on the human side, the Ukraine War is a wild card that has changed the geopolitical landscape with its deadly and devastating socioeconomic implications.
When the war began, many commodity prices spiked to record highs. Now, across the spectrum, prices have sharply retreated.
Why, because of the massive money printing schemes politicians and central banksters invented to flood the world with cheap—and often free—money to artificially pump up economies that were crashing as a result of their COVID War mandates… is now drying up.
As we detail in this and previous Trends Journals, with data proving that inflation was skyrocketing, the Bankster Bandits should have been raising interest rates a year-and-a-half ago. Instead they denied the inflation facts and they, along with governments that kept the cheap money flowing which in turn kept ratcheting up inflation.
Therefore, the higher they raise rates, the more the money flow will dry up and the deeper economies will decline… as will equities and many commodities.
And now the hard numbers are pointing to the big slowdown.
Among them, declining copper prices. Referred to as “Dr. Copper” because it is said to have a Ph.D. in economics because the price at which it is selling accurately signals changes in global economic trends.
From heavy industry to hi-tech, copper is an essential manufacturing component. Therefore, the higher the demand, the higher the price for not only copper but other commodities needed to build expanding economies.
Thus, when copper prices drop sharply, it is a signal that economies will dive down as well. Down a third from its record high of $10,600 last October, some 32 percent from its March peak, copper is selling at its lowest level since early February 2021. Now trading just below $7,000 per metric ton, this is its lowest level since the COVID War began in March 2020.
Seeing economic decline ahead, Goldman Sachs sees copper falling to $6,700 a ton before year’s end and falling below $6,000 should the world descend into recession… which we forecast it will.
The world economy faces “increasing risk” that rising U.S. interest rates will cut demand there and “considerable headwinds” hamper China’s recovery from its two-month lockdowns this spring, Rio Tinto warned in a public statement last week.
The company is one of the world’s major copper producers.
With U.S. interest rates rising and the dollar getting stronger—with copper and many other commodities dollar based—it is becoming too expensive for businesses in countries whose currencies are in decline and it costs them more to buy less.
Cold Chile
Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, saw the value of its currency plunge with the metal’s price, which has fallen by a quarter so far this year as the world’s economy has slowed.
After the value of Chile’s peso sank to 1,060.40 to the dollar last week, the country’s central bank announced it will spend $25 billion now through 30 September to sell dollars and buy pesos.
Chile’s inflation rate was estimated at 12.7 percent in June. As with all nations, the lower their currency sinks against the dollar, the more expensive it is to buy imported goods and services.
The bear market in copper futures and options—bets that copper’s price will sink deeper—is strongest since 2015, the Marex commodities brokerage reported.
In addition to copper, a number of other industrial metals such as zinc, lead, aluminum, tin, nickel are down 10 to 25 percent from their highs.
Beyond rising interest rates that are bringing down base metals, China’s zero COVID policy lockdowns which have lessened demand for the products are also responsible for the commodity price drops. Indeed, China is the number one source of global copper demand.
In the meantime, with the global economy going down—along with commodity prices—the equity markets, especially in the U.S., stay on the sharp up and down bounce.
LAST WEEK: STOCK MARKETS STILL SINKING
Despite a strong rally Friday, all three major stock indexes continued their slide last week.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 658 points on strong bank earnings and retail sales data that was perceived as better than expected. The NASDAQ added 201 points Friday and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index grew by almost 73 points.
For the week, though, the trend remained negative.
The Dow edged down 0.2 percent Monday through Friday, the NASDAQ shrank by 1.6 percent, and the S&P gave back 0.9 percent.
Investors are trading on day-by-day news but, long term, are still waiting to see whether the U.S. Federal Reserve can raise interest rates aggressively enough to affect inflation without causing a recession.
U.S. inflation climbed to 9.1 percent in June.
As a result, bets on interest rate futures markets are increasing that the Fed will raise interest rates by a full point next week instead of the three-quarters of a point the bank’s officials have advertised.
Consumer spending rose 1 percent in June in the amount of dollars, but inflation far outpaced the dollar’s power, meaning that in June shoppers actually bought fewer goods.
Consumers’ view of the future remained near its all-time darkest, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of consumer sentiment.
Also on Friday, yields on the benchmark 10-year treasury note slipped from 2.957 percent Thursday to 2.929 percent. Yields fall as securities’ prices rise.
Gold shed 1.5 percent for the week, edging down to $1,706 at 5 p.m. EDT on 15 July.
Brent crude dipped back below $100 on Friday before rising to $101.17 at 5 p.m. EDT. The price lost 4.4 percent for the week. West Texas Intermediate also broke down through the $100 mark, surrendering 4.4 percent at $97.69 at the end of Friday’s trading hours.
Bitcoin struggled back above the $20,000 benchmark to $20,721 at 5 p.m. EDT on 15 July, adding 3.8 percent for the week.
Overseas last week, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down by 0.3 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 last 0.4 percent, the South Korean KOSPI index dropped 0.2 percent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng sank by 5.4 percent.
On the Chinese mainland, the SSE Composite shrank 0.1 percent and the CSI Composite was smaller by 3.1 percent.
YESTERDAY: WHEN GREEN DAYS GO RED
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 215.65 points, or 0.7 percent, to close the trading day at 31072.61. The S&P 500 dropped 32.31 points, or 0.8 percent to 3830.85, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 92.37, or 0.8 percent, to end the day 11372.60.
The banksters at Goldman Sachs did better than expected in the second quarter and recorded a profit of just under $3 billion, which was a 50 percent decline from last year, but better than expected. Economists thought the finance giant could report a 60 percent decline. Fixed income traders for the company brought in $3.61 billion in revenue, which was about $700 million more than was expected.
But the overall market was pulled down by Apple’s announcement that it will reduce hiring in 2023. Bloomberg was first to report on the computer giant’s plans.
Tech companies like Meta, Google, and Uber have all announced a slower pace of hirings this year. Tech companies like Twitter, Netflix, and Tesla have cut staff.
TikTok also announced Monday that it would reduce staff, Wired reported. One former employee told the outlet that the restructuring was likely related to the broader economic climate.
TREND FORECAST: As we have been detailing each week, in our articles “WHEN THE ECONOMY FALLS JOBS GO WITH IT”, TikTok’s layoffs are just one more tick of the recession clock… the higher interest rates rise, the deeper the economy falls, the higher unemployment rises.
Monday was another bumpy day in the market with stocks once up by 350 points only to sour by the end of the session on the news from Apple, the $2.4 trillion giant. Stocks have been volatile for a while now with surging inflation and actions by central banks to rein in inflation.
The word on The Street is a pullback from the Feds raising interest rates a full percent down to 75 basis points. The Ukraine War also shows no sign of stopping, raising the prospect of energy rationing in Europe and pushing up a number of commodity prices that have been in decline.
Elsewhere, Europe’s Stoxx 600 increased by 3.85, or 0.93 percent to close at 417.63. Britain’s FTSE 100 jumped 64.23 points, or 0.90 percent to 7223.24.
South Korea’s Kospi also jumped 44.27 points, or 1.90 percent to finish at 2375.25. The Shanghai Composite increased by 1.55 percent, and the Shenzhen Component rose 0.98 percent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng saw its strongest trading in weeks and rose 2.7 percent, to close at 20820.87. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday.
Stock traders in Europe have expressed concerns about energy shortages and inflation that hit 8.6 percent, the highest ever. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in more than a decade on Thursday.
Stocks in Europe started the day in the green until a Reuters report that said Russia’s Gazprom declared force majeure on gas supplies to at least one unnamed customer in Europe that was identified in some reports as Germany.
GOLD/SILVER: Gold was trading down 4.90 to 1705.40 an ounce at 7:40 p.m. EST. It was a bumpy day for the metal, and it touched as high as 1714.30. The dollar was trading down 0.3 percent and off its 20-year highs.
Gold prices are vulnerable to higher Treasury yields. Gold was higher earlier in the day when reports emerged that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points. The higher the central bank raises rates, the less appealing gold is to investors because you do not earn interest on the metal.
The grand hope among gold investors is that the interest rate increase has already been worked into gold prices.
Silver was down 1.04 percent to 18.645 as of 7:53 p.m. EST.
TREND FORECAST: The dollar is near all-time highs due to lingering fears of a global recession. The euro traded below parity with the greenback for the first time in two decades and the Japanese yen is at lows against the dollar at levels not seen in over 100 years. Foreign investors tend to shy away from gold when the dollar is more expensive. The metal may stay in the $1,706 to $1,750 price range until after the Fed’s announcement and will gain some ground because the basis-point increase has already been worked into the price.
BITCOIN: Bitcoin, the world’s most popular crypto, had its best trading day in a month on Monday and hit 22,950 per coin, prompting some analysts to say that the “crypto winter” could be over.
The Trends Journal has reported on bitcoin’s drop in value since November 2021, when it was trading at $68,982 per coin.
Crypto traders embraced reports that the Federal Reserve would not go with a full point interest rate hike, and saw the move as a sign that the global economy might be on better footing than once assumed.
“It’s such a collapse and there’s been so much stress in the markets,” Rufus Round, GlobalBlock CEO, told CoinDesk. “The forced sellers are hopefully all done by now, and people are seeing value right here, especially given the macroeconomic backdrop.”
TREND FORECAST: When U.S. stocks go higher, bitcoin prices tend to benefit, and while hitting the 22,900 mark gives the crypto a little wiggle room from the 20,000 mark that it seemed to hover slightly above and slightly below for the past few weeks, there is some headwind for cryptos.
Bitcoinist pointed out that the crypto had two previous bear markets, in 2018, when it fell 84 percent from all-time highs, and in 2014, when it was down about the same. The current 70 percent decline could mean the crypto has some room to fall. We still maintain that the coin will take the biggest hit when governments move to regulate it.
TODAY: BOOM GOES THE MARKET, JUST WAIT FOR THE BUST
The Stock Market saw big gains today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the way.
The DJIA was up 754.44, or 2.43 percent to 31827.05, and the S&P 500 was up 105 points, or 2.76 percent to 3936.69. The NASDAQ Composite was up 353.10, or 3.11 percent to 11713.15.
Some traders have a rosier outlook on the economy than a few weeks ago. This opinion is based on what they see as the central bank getting control on inflation. These investors are also considering bank earnings reports to gain insight on the overall economy and chances of recession. The earning for key banks like Goldman Sachs were not as bad as expected.
James Gorman, the head of Morgan Stanley, said the market has been challenging, “but I think it is important to say that it’s not 2008 complicated.”
The Street seems to be split, with some analysts predicting that the economy will worsen, and others saying that even if the U.S. does enter a recession, it will not be as severe as previous years.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up 3 percent ahead of Netflix’s earnings. The streaming video company saw its stock price jump by 8 percent after revealing that it lost 970,000 subscribers in the three months leading to 30 June. Analysts were expecting the number to be around 2 million.
Inflation is still on everyone’s mind. John Waldron, the president of Goldman Sachs, said in an interview with Bloomberg Tuesday that Goldman is “impressed” with the way the Federal Reserve has been attacking interest rates.
“You’re seeing the Fed move quite aggressively and in my opinion very appropriately to get on top of what’s significant inflation building in the economy, clearly trying to front load a lot of the moves, policy moves, to try to deal with inflation,” Waldron said.
TRENDPOST: Jay Powell, the Fed Head who called inflation “transitory” for months before it hit a 40-year-high, will be happy to hear Waldron’s praise. Goldman Sachs is one of the banks that – “has its finger on the pulse” – of the central bank.
Powell has mentioned that he is aiming for a “soft landing,” and Waldron said his hopes are possible.
“Were we to end up at that place [3 percent interest rates], we can see the economy resetting and being able to grow from here. I think it’s important to reset the price of money in the economy, which is something the Fed is very focused on,” he said.
We have pointed out that the Bankster Bandits will do all they can behind the scenes to delay the market crash and it looks like our forecast that the Feds may ease up on rising interest rates is taking form. And, considering inflation spiking at 9.1 percent, their rate hikes will do little to bring down inflation and more to bring down the economy, which equals: Dragflation.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 was up 5.78 points, or 1.38 percent, to 423.41, and Britain’s FTSE 100 was up 73.04 points, or 1.01 percent 7296.28. South Korea’s Kospi was down 4.28, or 0.18 percent to 2370.97.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 173.21 points, or 0.65 percent to end at 26961.68. The Shanghai Composite was down 1.33, or 0.04 percent to close at 3279.43.
The Shenzhen Component was also down 37.89 points, or 0.30 percent to close at 12449.77. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 185.12 points, or 0.89 percent, to close at 20661.06.
Europe, like the U.S., is trying to get control of runaway inflation that has hit a 40-year high. The Bank of England is expected to announce a 50 basis point increase after its August meeting. This comes as investors anticipate that the European Central Bank will act bolder to tame inflation. The euro increased 1.1 percent and had its best day since May. The dollar fell from its two-decade high and hovered around 106.52.
The Asian market closed before the jump in U.S. stocks and investors there continued to express concerns about the upcoming Federal Reserve rate hike and COVID-19 infections in China that continue to threaten the world’s second-largest economy.
OIL: Oil prices were in the green today based on the weaker dollar and tighter supply for the world market.
Brent crude was up 1.21 points to 107.47 as of 2:11 p.m. EST, and West Texas Intermediate was up 1.38 to 104.02.
The prices reflect President Joe Biden’s inability to get Saudi Arabia to agree to raise its output to offset sanctions imposed against Russia over its Ukraine invasion.
Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at Avatrade, said OPEC+ sent a message to the West that the cartel makes its own decisions, and not the President of the United States.
“OPEC+ will continue to control oil supply, and one country alone cannot determine the oil supply – at least that is the message that traders have taken from Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia,” he said, according to The Guardian.
In the meantime, analysts have voiced criticism of the effort by the West to try and put a price cap on Russian oil.
“It’s kind of a ridiculous idea in my view,” Gal Luft, the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, told CNBC.
“Those Europeans and Americans that are talking about $40 a barrel, what they’re going to get is $140 a barrel,” Luft said. “You cannot trick the laws of supply and demand, and you cannot defy the laws of gravity when it comes to a fungible commodity.”
TRENDPOST: The Ukraine War shows no signs of slowing and leaders from Western countries appear willing to inflict an unlimited amount of pain on their populations for the good of “democracy.”
Oil prices will remain volatile due to uncertainties from the Ukraine War and the potential of further COVID-19 lockdowns in China. Brent has met resistance between $105 and $109 and could surge as high as $139 later this year, according to some forecasts.
The higher oil prices jump, the higher inflation will rise and the greater the pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. And the higher interest rates rise, the deeper equity markets and economies will fall.
GOLD/SILVER: Gold was steady today and was trading down 0.20 to 1,710.10 as of 2:40 p.m. EST. Silver was also down slightly to 18.695.
We have noted that gold prices are vulnerable to the surging dollar and higher interest rates because investors see Treasuries as better safe haven investments. The slight drop in dollar value has gold investors thinking twice about selling the precious metal.
The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level since 6 July and anticipated moves by central banks in the U.S. and Europe have some investors sitting on the sidelines.
TREND FORECAST: We’ve seen the many variables behind gold prices and how the safe haven asset is not completely immune to market uncertainty. Fears of recession, a prolonged war in Ukraine, and central bank intervention to combat inflation are weighing down on gold prices.
Investors seem to take comfort when gold hits the $1,800 mark, but we maintain our forecast that for gold to maintain strength, prices must stay in the high $1,900 per ounce range and when they solidify above $2,200 per ounce, gold will spike to new highs.
BITCOIN: Bitcoin, once again, followed U.S. stocks higher today and was up 984.20 to 23,426 as of 3 p.m. EST.
The world’s most popular crypto has hovered around $20,000 a coin as of recent weeks and the $23,000 market is seen by some investors as a breakout and proof that the “Crypto Winter” has faded to spring.
We have reported on how cryptos have been down due to a confluence of problems. Investors have found Treasuries more appealing due to higher interest rates. The crypto market cap had fallen 2.2 trillion from its 3 trillion high reached in November 2021, but it is back up to about $1 trillion today.
We have also noted that a positive attitude on The Street usually has a positive impact on the crypto market. There is a feeling that the economy is looking better since the Fed is reportedly looking at a 75 basis point interest rate increase instead of a full point, according to analysts.
Bitcoin is up about 15 percent in the past week, Solana increased by more than 35 percent in the week, and Ethereum is up 45 percent.
TREND FORECAST: Bitcoin’s recent 15 percent increase shows how crypto prices track stock prices. The better the outlook on The Street, the better cryptos, by and large, perform.
So, at this point as go equities, so too will go cryptos. And this increase may continue because if the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates only by 75 basis points and not one percent is true, equities will climb and so too will it be positive for bitcoin. We maintain that Bitcoin could jump even more if it hits $25,000 per coin.