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We are trend forecasters.
As we say at the Trends Journal, “Opportunity misses those who view the world through the eyes of their profession.”
Tracking trends is the understanding of how we got here to see where we are going. As the German philosopher Friedrich von Schiller noted back in 1790, “In today already walks tomorrow.”
But those who only see what they want relative to their needs, desires, belief systems, and interests—and tune into only what they want to hear—will be blinded by the future.
To analyze, forecast, and develop strategies to avoid dangers and seize opportunities it is necessary to take a Globalnomic® perspective of the critical socioeconomic and geopolitical current events… and make the connection between different fields. As Chief Seattle, a Suquamish and Duwamish chief, said: “All things are connected, like the blood which unites us all.”
Therefore, as we look at the current events forming the equity market and economic trends, our Globalnomic® analysis is that equity markets are running wild.
And Empire America—the economic and military powerhouse—is going crazy, going down and on the verge of collapse.
Crazy Daze
Starting on the “crazy” side, according to a survey conducted by the Institute for Politics at Harvard Kennedy School that was released today, some three-quarters of young adults polled across the country believe “the United States has a mental health crisis.”
Among those surveyed, just 6 percent disagreed with the findings that the U.S. is growing mentally ill while 52 percent of those polled said they were experiencing depression and hopelessness; nearly 25 percent thought about self-harm and knew someone that committed suicide.
Just this week, the national news was that a University of Wisconsin campus track and cross country star took her life.
According to the first National College Health Risk Behavior Survey, 10.3 percent of respondents reported seriously considering attempting suicide, 6.7 percent had made a suicide plan, and 1.5 percent reported they had attempted suicide one or more times in the 12 months preceding the survey.
Read some of last week’s headlines from The New York Times: “‘It’s Life or Death’: U.S. Teenagers Face a Mental Health Crisis” and “Schools Try to Reach A Pandemic Casualty: The Absentee Student.”
Some 22 percent of students were absent from school. This was not a “pandemic casualty,” it was a political calamity.
It was demented politicians and arrogant bureaucrats that launched the COVID War and destroyed the lives and livelihood of billions with their made-up, “flatten the curve” mandates that sucked the joy and beauty out of life and destroyed “non-essential” businesses… many of which will never reopen.
We got it wrong!
We had forecast that once the COVID War wound down, people of all ages would be taking to the streets to celebrate their freedom. There would be a “Roaring 2020s.”
But we failed to consider how unlocking a prison cell does not mean a prisoner is free. Governments tried to force us to take vaccines, but we’re realizing that there’s no tonic for the loss of the human spirit.
Go back to 2020 when the COVID War was launched by China during its Lunar New Year—The Year of The Rat—when they locked down the city of Wuhan, followed by other cities to fight the coronavirus.
Italy was the first country to follow the Chinese Communists and the lockdowns spread throughout Europe and the U.S. Washington killed what used to be called the American Spirit: Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.
Across the human spectrum—from suicide rates, violence, drug overdose, poverty, crime, and homelessness to business destruction—the COVID War’s damage is incalculable… far beyond the data supplied by the government-compliant media.
Inflation is skyrocketing, real wages are sinking, and millions of businesses have gone under.
Hardly mentioned is the pending commercial office real estate disaster that will be the direct result of the phony political science that was used to “flatten the curve.” Businesses were forced to close and workers were told to work from home… a trend that is now part of the new ABnormal.
There’s been barely a word about the death of nightlife in much of America. Bars that were once standing room only were forced to close and never reopened. And many that have, as with restaurants and across the hospitality sector, are doing much less business than before the COVID War.
Tracking trends is the understanding of where we are and how we got here to see where we are going.
The “how we got here” that was the beginning of “The End” of Empire America began at the start of the 21st century.
As Gerald Celente has noted, the 20th century was the American century, and the 21st will be the Chinese century.
Why?
Because the business of China is business while the business of America—which is controlled and destroyed by the military-industrial complex—is War!
And George “Daddy’s Boy” Bush began the final destruction of America’s Declaration of Independence when he and his team of lying, murderous Washington psychopaths launched the “War on Terror” following the 9/11 attacks that brought down the World Trade Center in New York City and the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., just outside Washington, D.C.
Yes, the 2001 War on Terror was the beginning of The End of the American century, with the creation of Homeland Security, frisking people going into airports, metal detectors and IDs to enter buildings and massive surveillance to watch, look and listen to every breath and step the plantation workers of Slavelandia take.
It should have come as no surprise since Dwight Eisenhower, supreme commander of the allied forces during WWII and two-term U.S. president, warned the American people that the military-industrial complex was robbing the nation of the genius of the scientists, sweat of the labors, and future of the children… and here we are.
After two decades of non-stop, trillion-dollar losing wars following 9/11, the military-industrial complex is back.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said yesterday—“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”
Austin, a former Army general and board member of the military-industrial complex’s #2 Defense Department beneficiary, Raytheon—which, according to Defense News, racked up $65 billion in sales in 2020. About 65 percent of its sales were from defense contracts.
Yet, while such words are applauded by the American media, such a statement would be called “Acts of War,” by Washington if Russia declared its intent “to see America weakened” for its Yugoslavia, Afghan, Iraq, Syrian, Libyan, Yemen etc. wars.
And as for seeing Russia weakened, as we have thoroughly detailed in the Trends Journal since Russia launched its war against Ukraine on 24 February, the U.S.-led sanctions on Russia have dramatically increased global inflation, deeply worsened economic growth, and drove hundreds of millions deeper into poverty.
Absent a major Renaissance, with the U.S.’s ongoing war-mania mentality and the political class’s embracement of the Chinese Communist way of full-people control escalating—from the War on Terror to the COVID War—the mind, body, spirit and economy of Empire America is dead and dying.
And as for the “Chinese Way,” take a look at what true communism is doing to destroy the spirit of its people, its economy and its equity markets.
YESTERDAY: On the equity front, Chinese stocks took their worst hit in more than two years in anticipation of the government—after five weeks of lockdowns in major cities—imposing yet more stringent mandates including mandatory testing in their fight to win the COVID War. (See “SHANGHAI BLUES: MILLIONS GET LOCKED DOWN TO FIGHT COVID WAR.”)
To illustrate the communist mentality and dictatorship of the Chinese way, Chaoyang, one of Beijing’s largest districts, launched mass testing of those who work and live in the district of some 3.5 million people after just 11 cases—not deaths—were reported over a 24-hour period.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shed 3.73 percent. The Shanghai Composite sank by 5.1 percent, and the country-wide CSI Composite soured by 4.9 percent, the largest single-day declines for both since February 2020… which was the fallout of the COVID War that China launched in January of that year.
Following the China market route, the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 lost 1.8 percent.
In the U.S. after opening up sharply down, stocks rebounded slightly from last week’s slide with the S&P 500 up 24.34 points and The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 238.06
The Nasdaq Composite, which spent the day in negative territory, ended 2.2 percent higher after news emerged that Twitter, the social media giant, agreed to be acquired by Tesla’s Elon Musk.
Twitter’s share price swelled by 5.7 percent after its board agreed to sell the company to Elon Musk. Twitter will now be a private company run according to the desires of Musk alone.
U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies saw their worst sell-off in two years on concerns related to the country’s drastic COVID-related lockdowns.
The ten-year treasury note’s yield edged down to 2.825 percent Monday after reaching 2.905 percent Friday. Investors searching for safer assets amid economic and geopolitical turmoil push Treasury yield up as bond prices fall.
Despite gold being bought as a hedge against inflation which is soaring, gold slipped to $1,897, down 1.83 percent since it pays no yield while government bonds do at a time when interest rates rise.
And with the dollar getting stronger and gold being dollar denominated, for foreign investors, where currencies are weakening against the dollar, it becomes more expensive for them to buy gold.
Brent crude oil dipped to $98 a barrel on assumptions that China’s demand for oil will continue to be reduced for the duration of its zero COVID policy lockdowns.
Oil’s decline pushed down the S&P’s energy sector by 3.3 percent.
Bitcoin climbed 1.89 percent, breaking back up through the $40,000 mark to $40,273 at 6 p.m. U.S. EDT.
Elsewhere, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index continued to fall under pressures from rampant inflation, the threat of recession, and ongoing uncertainties of the Ukraine war.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan sank another 1.9 percent and the KOSPI index in South Korea lost 1.7 percent, both weighed down by China’s economic freeze as COVID-related lockdowns dragged on.
Fidelity Investments plans to announce that it will allow customers to invest in a bitcoin account for their 401(k)s, which the WSJ said is the first major retirement company to make such a move.
“There is a need for a diverse set of products and investment solutions for our investors,” a Fidelity employee told the paper. “We fully expect that cryptocurrency is going to shape the way future generations think about investing for the near term and long term.”
Bitcoin was up $363.19, or 0.94 percent, Monday and was in the $40,568 range.
LAST WEEK: Shrinking corporate earnings and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s more aggressive attitude about interest rates sent U.S. equity markets to their third consecutive week of decline, including their worst day since 2020 on 22 April.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 981 points on Friday, unraveling gains made earlier in the week, closing down 2.82 percent and dragging down the Standard and Poor’s 500 index by 122 points, or 2.77 percent.
The NASDAQ closed the week down 2.6 percent.
Although about 80 percent of companies reporting earnings have beaten estimates, disappointments among health care and retail stocks weighed on the larger market, The Wall Street Journal said.
Also, Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank was prepared to raise rates by a half-point next month, a more aggressive move to control inflation but one that also would raise the cost of doing business, perhaps curtailing future corporate earnings.
The yield on the ten-year treasury note closed Friday at 2.905 percent, having declined in two of the week’s final three days.
Bond yields fall as prices rise, indicating that more investors are buying bonds.
Abroad, the all-Europe Stoxx 600 index shed 1.79 percent on Friday as the continent confronted record inflation, a weakening German economy, and uncertainties over the Ukraine war.
Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.63 percent, due in part to the yen’s sinking value against the dollar, as we report in “Japan’s Yen Continues Its Tailspin as Inflation Accelerates” in this issue.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.21 percent, South Korea’s KOSPI lost .86 percent, and China’s CSI Composite index shrank by .33 percent.
China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen composite gained .23 percent, defying the impact of China’s dramatic, widespread lockdowns, including in those two cities.
TODAY: China’s COVID-19 response and the reaction by central banks to surging global inflation contributed to a rough day on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 809.28 points, or about 2.4 percent and the S&P 500 fell 120.92 points. Nasdaq also sank 514.11 points, or 3.95 percent—a 52-week low. (WATCH: Gregory Mannarino talks with Gerald Celente about market fluctuations, and read Gregory Mannarino’s article in this Trends Journal: “Surging Inflation Has Not Yet Even Begun to Reveal Itself.”
Alphabet, the parent of Google, disappointed analysts with its earnings report and fell 5 percent on the day. CNBC, citing StreetAccount, said one of the drivers was YouTube’s advertising revenue. Economists expected $7.51 billion and the company reported $6.87 billion. For the month, the S&P is down 7.8 percent, the Nasdaq is down 12.2 percent and the Dow has slumped 4.2 percent.
And the Nasdaq, down 23 percent from its all-time high, is in bear territory while the S&P 500, down 13 percent from its ATH is in correction territory.
Treasury yields also fell today, with the U.S. 10-year yield down seven basis points down to 2.76 percent and the U.S. 2-year yield fell 12 basis points to 2.52 percent.
Stocks in Europe were down a day earlier due to concerns over new COVID-19 cases in China and investors were more attracted to bonds.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 was down 4.01 points, or 0.90 percent on Tuesday and Britain’s FTSE 100 added 5.65, or 0.08 percent.
“The prospect of further restrictions in China could lead to a poisonous mix of further inflationary pressure, as supply chains in the so-called ‘factory of the world’ get disrupted, and weaker economic growth,” AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould told Reuters.
“The result could be stagflation—a slowing economy accompanied by surging prices—a brew few investors would be able to stomach.”
Mace McCain, chief investment officer at Frost Investment Advisors, told The Wall Street Journal that the market is experiencing a “world-wide tightening cycle now, and so we have to let the air out of many of these assets.”
The World Bank said Tuesday that there was a risk that commodity costs lasting until the end of 2024 would lead to “stagflation—sluggish activity combined with strong cost of living pressures.”
We disagree, it will be Dragflation: GDP declining, prices rising.
As we have extensively detailed, the sanctions imposed on Moscow by the United States and NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a contributing factor to the surge in oil, gas and a range of commodity prices.
South Korea’s Kospi inched upward 0.42 percent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.41 percent. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.44 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was 0.33 percent higher, finishing the trading day at 19,934.71.
Chinese stocks lost ground as investors watched the COVID situation and subsequent lockdown on the mainland play out. Inflation is also a concern.
The Japanese yen, which hit a 20-year low against the U.S. dollar last week, gained 0.80 percent on the greenback. The rebound was due to speculation that the Japanese central bank may act to stabilize the currency.
GOLD/SILVER: Gold was up $7.80, or 0.4114 percent on Tuesday and silver, which was selling in the $24.00 per ounce range for the past few weeks, was down slightly at 0.49 percent per ounce.
TREND FORECAST: It is a simple equation. The higher inflation rises, the higher safe-haven assets gold and silver rise. And, when the Banksters raise interest rates, it will bring down Wall Street and Main Street very hard… and the harder they fall, the higher precious metal prices will rise.
We maintain our forecast, that on the downside, should gold prices fall below $1,850 per ounce, prices can sink down to the low $1,710 per ounce level. For gold to maintain strength prices must stay in the high $1,900 per ounce range and when they solidify above $2,200 per ounce, gold will spike to new highs.
OIL: Brent crude jumped 3.16 percent to $105.53 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was up $3.16, or 3.2%, at $101.70. Reuters reported that the increase was due to China’s announcement that it will support its economy against a possible coronavirus lockdown in Beijing.
As we have extensively detailed in The Trends Journal, the sanctions imposed on Moscow by the United States and NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a contributing factor to the surge in oil, gas prices and a wide range of commodity prices.
BITCOIN: Bitcoin took a hit today, falling 4.47 percent. As we go to press it is selling at $38,411 per coin. Where it is trading now, is in the same low range it has been for several weeks.
Griffin Ardern, a volatility trader from crypto asset management firm Blofin, told CoinDesk, “It’s going to be difficult for the crypto market to make new highs. The Fed’s May meeting is imminent, and bearish sentiment still dominates the market.”
The Fed is expected to raise rates 50 basis-point next month to fight inflation. Analysts say the lure of these cryptocurrencies decreased when it became more valuable to hold the dollar. Fortune pointed out that cryptocurrency tends to move in line with the Nasdaq 100 and is “negatively correlated with the dollar.”
TREND FORECAST: We maintain our trend forecast that when bitcoin solidly breaks above $55,500 per coin, it will head toward new highs. We also forecast, the downward breakout point would be hit should prices fall below $25,000 per coin. If they go that low, bitcoin could well fall back to the $10,000 range.
(For more crypto trends and forecasts, please see our TRENDS IN CRYPTOS section.)