ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEW

Welcome to the Global insane asylum. It’s ‘One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest’ 2.0 in a country near you.

Take a look at what the Big Nurse Ratcheds running the globalist scheme game called the “European Union” did today. 

Yes, Nurse Ratched’s arrogant, insane, authoritarians who force you to take the medicine that the government prescribes. 

Forget that prices in the Eurozone hit a record high as inflation spiked up 8.1 percent in May, racking up another record high for the seventh month in a row. (And April’s inflation was a 7.8 percent hike and not the 7.4 percent that was reported.)

So, how are the EU Nurse Ratchets dealing with the inflation spike? Today, they decided to ban 90 percent of Russian crude by year’s end.

Brilliant! Oil prices jumped for the second day in a row in reaction to the news, which, of course, will further inflate inflation. 

Gas prices in the U.S., up 52 percent from last year, jumped to a record high on Monday, hitting  $4.619 per gallon according to the American Automobile Association.  

Yes, thanks to the Nurse Ratcheds that imposed a series of strict sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, plus Kyiv’s refusal to make concessions and negotiate for peace, beyond oil, a series of commodity prices have hit new highs. 

TREND FORECAST: As we have greatly detailed in Trends Journals, the sanctions imposed on Moscow will do much greater economic and mental harm on We the People than Russia. Indeed, the worlds #1 Sanction Champion, U.S. President Joe Biden, admitted that sanctions would not “deter Putin” from invading Ukraine, but were simply an effort to show unity in the West.   

Therefore, inflation will now spike higher across continents. And, should Brent crude hit the $150 per barrel range, equities and economies will collapse globally. 

Moreover, as economic conditions deteriorate in nations across the globe, so too will social unrest, civil wars, and regional wars. As Gerald Celente says, “When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose, they lose it. And when WWIII goes international, everything will be lost. 

Globalist Scheme  

As for the EU, it robbed the individual countries of their nationalities, currencies, and identities to be who they are and rule as they wish. Instead, they had to become members of the Globalist Cuckoo’s Nest where one authoritarian rule fits all.  

For those of us old enough to remember when the euro scheme was shoved down the throats of the gullible public back in the 1990s, the big lie was that by having one currency under the EU umbrella, individual European nations would not attack each other, kill millions, and destroy nations as they did in WWI and WWII.  

And now, united the EU stands with NATO in their war with Russia… that the media labels a “proxy war.” Sending weapons of death and intelligence to defeat Russia is not a “proxy.” As with anyone who supplies what a killer needs to kill others… the U.S. and NATO are “accessories to the crime” of mass murder and mass destruction.    

The first shots of WWIII have been fired. Yet, the world is deaf to the sounds of death and hatred politicians and the mainstream media are selling. 

This uncaring about the hard facts and the swallowing of Cuckoo’s nest crap being fed to them is a mental condition that is as prevalent today among the masses as it has been for centuries.    

Name the war? Since history was recorded, the louder war drums beat, the greater the hatred is heard and the more the masses line up to fight and die for their Big Nurse Ratched.  

And as with after each war, there is greater consolidation among the Cuckoo’s Nest superpowers that will rule with an ever stronger authoritarian fist.  

As for the equities markets, it’s one big club. Or as the great George Carline noted. “It’s one big club, and you ain’t in it.”

Yes, the Big players know the deal and when it’s dealt, while the amateurs get slaughtered. How’s this for a headline?: “Young Traders Suffer First Market Swoon,” was a front page story in today’s Wall Street Journal.   

“Young Traders”? How about kids that don’t know shit lost money gambling in the Wall Street casino? 

And unlike “Young Traders,” it’s a different game for The Club.  

How about a bullshit name like the Plunge Protection Team that rigs markets? How about the central banks pumping tens of trillions to their banker buddies and The Street’s big gamblers when they want it or need it? 

And forget about the Bankster Bandits who know the inside deals, gambling on them and getting rich… while “Young Traders,” and the little people suffer big losses. (See “FED TIGHTENS TRADING RULES AFTER SCANDAL FORCES RESIGNATIONS” and “BANKSTER BANDITS GET RICHER PLAYING THE INSIDE TRACK,” 14 Sep 2021.)  

TREND FORECAST: Despite the obvious insider’s games of market rigging, the higher interest rates rise, the deeper economies will fall. And according to a Financial Times survey, over the past three months, there have been 60 increases of interest rates… which is the most aggressive round of rate hikes since 2000, The Year of the Dot-com Bust.    

As we continue to note, while the average person feels the economic pain as inflation rises and it costs them more to buy less, the true levels of economic devastation will not be realized by the general population until Wall Street crashes. Therefore, the Bankster Bandits and The Wall Street White Shoe Boys will do all they can behind the scenes to delay the market crash. 

LAST WEEK: U.S. EQUITIES RALLY ON EARNINGS, ECONOMIC NEWS

After sliding for almost two months, last week the U.S. stock markets leapt back toward positive territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 5.5 percent through the week. The NASDAQ added 6 percent, about 390 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed the week up 5.8 percent after gaining 239 points.

New data showed consumer spending remains strong, although shoppers are dipping into their savings to keep buying.

That, added to several companies reporting strong earnings, gave investors confidence that the economy is taking the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two recent interest rate hikes in stride.

Stocks rose even after the release of the minutes of the Fed’s meeting early this month, in which the rate-setting committee indicated that it would boost rates by a half-point in June and again in July.

Also, some investors picked through the recent rubble to find stocks they considered bargains and bought in.

About $21 billion was put into U.S. stocks from 11 May through 18 May, according to BoA Global Research.

It’s a Guess

However, some analysts think the market has further to fall and last week’s rally was a blip in a longer decline, The Wall Street Journal reported.

“I think you’re going to see a lot of ‘buy the dips’ and ‘sell the rips’,” Stephen Solaka, co-founder of Belmont Capital Management, told the WSJ.

The fundamental factors that drove markets lower are unchanged, the WSJ noted.

The Fed will continue to raise interest rates. China’s lockdowns and the Ukraine war have worsened shortages and supply line snarls. Prices are rising and, at some point, consumers will begin to sit on their wallets.

Last week, interest on the benchmark 10-year treasury note continued its slump into a third week, closing at 2.748 percent after touching 3 percent early this month.

Concerns about the economic future sent more investors into bonds, driving prices up and yields down.

Treasury securities’ yields fall when prices rise with demand.

Brent crude oil for July delivery closed down a fraction at a still-strong $116.92; U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil ended the week at $115.07. The two prices’ closeness indicates that oil investors see strong demand into the summer.

Gold closed the trading week virtually flat at $1,854.

Bitcoin ended Friday down 1.2 percent for the week at 28,576.

Overseas markets joined in Friday’s rally.

The pan-European STOXX 600 was up 1.42 percent. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.66 percent. The KOSPI in South Korea gained 0.98 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.89 percent. China’s SSE Composite grew 0.23 percent and its sister CSI Composite edged up 0.21 percent.

YESTERDAY: U.S. MARKETS CLOSED. AN UP DAY

Stocks in Europe closed Monday at their highest level in May after reports from China that Beijing will loosen its COVID-19 restrictions in major cities.

The European Stoxx 600 was up 0.6 percent on Monday to 447.79 and the FTSE 100 gained 0.19 percent.

Investors have been anxious about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “Zero COVID” strategy, its impact on the world’s second-largest economy, and the global supply chain.

The market will pay close attention to the upcoming European Central Bank meeting that will focus on whether or not the central bank will hasten its departure from abandoning its negative interest rate in order to fight historic inflation. 

Klaas Knot, a member of the central bank, told CNBC last week that the board has not ruled out a 50 basis point hike during the July meeting.

Inflation in the EU hit its highest annual level since the creation of the euro currency back in 1999. Inflation in Europe jumped to a record 8.1 percent in May, from 7.8 percent in April. Energy prices also jumped 39.2 percent in May.

In Asia, the Nikkei was up 2.19 percent and the Hang Seng also rose 2.06 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.6 percent. The Kospi in South Korea closed 1.2 percent higher at 2,669.66.

China saw gains in its tech sector and benefited from investor optimism that the worst of the country’s COVID-19 lockdowns is over. Shanghai will lift its COVID restrictions on businesses and offer tax rebates to businesses impacted by the lockdowns. Beijing also announced that it reopened some public transportation.

The Japanese yen traded at 127.29 per dollar, which is stronger than last week, when it was trading at 127.8 against the dollar.

BITCOIN: The world’s largest cryptocurrency jumped more than 7 percent on Monday, up to about $31,500, which Coinbase pointed out was its biggest increase since early March. Bitcoin had been on a nine-week decline in value. Bitcoin is up 25.1 percent from its low of $25,401.05 on 12 May. The cryptocurrency has been on a rollercoaster ride after hitting its high of $67,802 in November. 

However, this spike up is a positive move for the cryptocurrency. 

OIL: Oil prices soared Monday on news that the EU agreed to ban 90 percent of Russian crude by the end of 2022. Brent crude futures increased 1.4 percent to $123.37 per barrel. CNBC pointed out that U.S. crude hit $119.42 at one point, which was a 12-week high. Analysts told The Wall Street Journal that prices will hinge on whether Russia can divert its oil to Asia. The paper pointed out that the EU pays Russia about $10 billion a month for crude and oil products.

GOLD: Spot gold increased 0.2 percent at $1,856.86 per ounce, as of 0152 GM. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1 percent higher to $1,859.40, Reuters reported.

TREND FORECAST: As we have long noted, the ECB raising interest rates in July, is a joke. Despite inflation spiking to new records over the past seven months, and their bullshit that when inflation hits 2 percent they would raise interest rates, they have not raised them for eight years.

The ECB’s deposit rate is currently -0.5 percent, which means private banks are charged a fee to keep cash at the central bank. Inflation in the EU hit 7.4 percent in April but Christine Lagarde, The ECB head, said if inflation comes down to 2 percent, “a progressive further normalization of interest rates towards the neutral rate will be appropriate.”

While she talks about a 2 percent range, as we note above, inflation hit 8.1 percent in May and they are making a big deal of bringing rates to zero? Again, it’s a crime syndicate that keeps buying bonds from their buddies and floods cash into the system to keep the Ponzi scheme going. 

The United States, as with nations around the world, will dive into Dragflation, not just a recession. GDPs will decline as inflation rises and currencies will keep declining in value. And, the deeper currencies dive and the higher inflation rises, the higher gold and silver prices will rise.

TODAY: ROCKY MARKET DAY 

Stocks were down in the U.S. today in another wild day of trading due to a confluence of factors, ranging from poor earnings, the EU ban on Russian oil, and possible Fed moves to rein in runaway inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 222.84 points to close at 32,990.12. The S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4 percent. 

The DJIA finished the bumpy month at about the same level it was at the end of April and the Nasdaq was down 2.1 percent in May. The benchmark S&P 500 ended May down about 14 percent from its high in January.

President Joe Biden met with Fed Head Jerome Powell at the White House  today to discuss the rising costs of goods for Americans. Biden is relying on Powell to pull off a “soft landing” as the central bank tries to get a hold of soaring inflation. The U.S. has seen an 8.3 percent jump in consumer prices over the past year.

“My plan to address inflation starts with a simple proposition: Respect the Fed, respect the Fed’s independence,” Biden told reporters.

Investors have expressed concern about China’s “zero-COVID” policy and its impact on the global supply chain because some of its manufacturing hubs have been locked down. The Ukraine War continues to rage with no signs of slowing. The White House is currently contemplating the approval of a weapons system that can reach well into Russian territory. Moscow called the system a red line.

TRENDPOST: Inflation was raging throughout 2021, but it took Powell until late November to stop saying it was “temporary” or “transitory.” In Congressional testimony last 30 November, Powell admitted it is “probably a good time to retire” the Fed’s characterization of inflation as transitory.

The damage was done.

Throughout those months, the Fed’s primary concern was to keep pumping monetary methadone into Wall Street junkies to keep propping up the equity markets and the failing economy. 

TREND FORECAST: Given its past timidity, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates high enough fast enough to halt inflation. If it did, the U.S. economy would be thrown into a recession and the rest of the world’s economy would follow.

If the Ukraine War wasn’t raging, China wasn’t locked down, and sanctions weren’t imposed… under the old model…  Inflation would be slowed by consumers simply refusing, or being unable to, pay constantly rising prices. Discretionary purchases would shrink, then shoppers will ditch pricey brand names for bargain alternatives, and finally they will do without.

The Fed’s real challenge is to pick an interest rate that allows consumers to keep shopping; consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Again, should equities and the economy suddenly crash under the weight of interest rate rises in the next several months, we forecast the Fed will stop raising rates. And, prior to the 2024 Presidential elections, the Fed will lower rates to boost economic growth. Remember: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Inflation numbers were a drag on stocks in Europe today. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was down 0.5 percent and Britain’s FTSE 100 was 0.1 percent lower. South Korea’s Kospi was up 16.24, or 0.61 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 89.63 points, or 0.33 percent. 

China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.19 percent and the Shenzhen Component also rose 1.92 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 291.27 points, or 1.38 percent, finishing the trading day at 21,415.20.  

GOLD/SILVER:  Gold was down 17.50, or 0.9453 percent, and silver was down 0.551, or 2.49 percent. 

TREND FORECAST: For gold to maintain strength, prices must stay in the high $1,900 per ounce range and when they solidify above $2,200 per ounce, gold will spike to new highs. On the downside, should gold fall below $1,800, its bottom will be in the $1,730 range.     

OIL: Brent crude jumped 1 percent to $122.84 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate fell 0.3 percent to $114.67 per barrel. Crude prices rose on news that the EU will ban most Russian oil imports by the end of the year. The policy cuts about 90 percent of oil imports from Russia by the end of the year. EU leaders praised the agreement as a watershed and claimed it will further damage Russia’s war machine, but fractures in the bloc emerged. The deal does not include oil pumped through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, CNBC reported.

TREND FORECAST: Gas prices hit highs for the second day in a row, which will only be compounded by the Russian import ban in the EU. The Trends Journal has a special in this week’s issue about the possibility of an all-out war between Israel and Iran that would lead to oil hitting $150 a barrel and crash the world economy. 

BITCOIN:  The bitcoin trend-line is moving in a positive direction. The coin was up $11.30 on Tuesday, hitting $31,716 per coin as of 4:42 p.m. ET. Bitcoin is down about 50 percent since its high in the past six months and has been stuck in the $29,000-30,000 range for over the past three weeks.

TREND FORECAST: As we have been noting for over five years, a major factor in forecasting the future price of bitcoin and other crypto currencies is dependent upon government regulations.

We had long forecast, the downward breakout point would be hit should prices fall below $25,000 per coin. If it goes that low, bitcoin could well fall back to the $10,000 range. On the upside, we maintain our forecast that bitcoin will find strength to hit new highs when it breaks above $55,500 per coin.

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