DURABLE GOODS ORDERS GAINED IN MARCH

U.S. orders for durable goods posted a 0.8-percent gain in March, reaching $275 billion.

Durable goods are items intended to last at least three years, such as cars, washing machines, and lawn mowers.

Demand for cars and electronics propelled the increase, notching the fifth month of gains out of the past six.

New orders for nondefense capital goods other than aircraft rose 1 percent to $80.8 billion.

TREND FORECAST: While The Wall Street Journal notes that China’s shutdowns and locked ports, supply disruptions due to the Ukraine war and Western sanctions, and unchecked inflation could pucker durable goods demand among both consumers and industrial buyers, we disagree. 

When politicians launched the COVID War over two years ago and imposed draconian mandates that forced people to stay-at-home, durable goods sales sharply rose. 

Now, with the COVID War winding down and inflation outpacing earnings, we forecast durable goods as well as hi-tech products and services sales will decline as more people can afford to buy less.