For decades, there have been ongoing border disputes between India and China in the remote Himalayan region that stretches 2,200 miles. What is referred to as the “Line of Actual Control” has never officially been agreed on.
Escalation of military conflict between China and India in this region has been a global concern for many years, as troops from both countries face each other across a number of points along the disputed border. The tension stretches back to the 1962 Sino-Indian War over this dispute, which was won by China.
In May, tensions started rising as reports of fistfights between Chinese and Indian troops became known, followed by a buildup of military forces by both sides. Despite an agreement to tone down the confrontation in early June, the situation escalated out of control in the late evening of 15 June, with dozens of Indian and Chinese dead after a confrontation in the area known as the Galwan Valley.
Both sides contested the other’s account, and few details are known given the remoteness of the region. Both India and China confirmed no bullets or weapon firing of any kind took place. The battle was fought with rocks and clubs, and reports surfaced that Chinese soldiers had beaten the Indian victims to death.
The Indian army confirmed 20 of its troops were either killed in the battle or died of wounds soon after with another 70 injured. China has not given an account of casualties, but some reports indicated about 40 soldiers were killed.
It should be noted that not only are these the two most populated nations in the world, they are both nuclear powers.
Zhao Lijian, Deputy Director of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Information Department, stated last Tuesday that Indian troops had provoked the deadly conflict by crossing the border on two occasions. On Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued the statement, “The Indian side must not misjudge the current situation and must not underestimate China’s firm will to safeguard territorial sovereignty.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded last Wednesday, “We never provoke anyone. There should be no doubt that India wants peace, but if provoked, India will provide an appropriate response.”
On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made the U.S. position clear when he blamed China for the escalating border tension: “The PLA (China’s People’s Liberation Army) has escalated border tensions – we see it today in India… and we watch as it militarizes the South China Sea and illegally claims more territory there.”
Last Saturday, both countries continued claiming it was the other side that provoked the conflict by crossing the border. India’s foreign ministry official Anurag Srivastava denied any breach of the agreement by his country.
Countering India’s remarks, Chinese minister Zhao tweeted that the Galwan Valley, where the conflict took place, is on the Chinese side, and he accused India of building roads and bridges there that clearly violated China’s territory.
Adding to the geopolitical tension, China is an ally of Pakistan, which has had a long-heated dispute with India over the Kashmir region. As reported by AntiWar.com, although Pakistan was not involved in the bloodshed last week, it could be drawn in. Pakistan is also a nuclear power.
TRENDPOST: One of the key underlying issues here is China’s Belt & Road Initiative, a multi trillion-dollar investment to establish a global trading network, which we have written about in a number of Trends Journal articles.
India has refused to recognize the Belt & Road Initiative’s legitimacy over concerns it would signal weakness in its dispute with China and Pakistan over heated territorial issues such as the one witnessed last week in the Himalayan Galwan Valley.
TREND FORECAST: When all else fails, they take you to war.
India’s economy is long failing. As we have reported in the Trends Journal, in 2019, auto sales plunged and over one million workers in the auto industry were laid off. And, again, prior to the COVID War, India’s GDP had declined for seven straight quarters.
According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, India’s unemployment skyrocketed to more than 25 percent due to the lockdown.
Also, as a result of the lockdown, according to IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index, India’s services sector collapsed from 49.3 in March to 5.4 in April. (Any number under 50 signals decline.)
Considering the scale of the global lockdown and the slow phased reopening of businesses with a vast array of restrictions, we forecast India’s economy and its currency will continue to decline, sinking into depression.
As a result, civil unrest, which had been tamped down with the lockdown, will again escalate.
