CHINA TO TAKE TAIWAN: A MATTER OF TIME


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The Taiwanese military said last Friday that 20 Chinese combat aircraft, including four H-6K bombers and 10 J-16 fighters, conducted exercises that some familiar with the operation said looked like a simulation of an attack against U.S. warships sailing in the region, according to Reuters.
Indeed, last month, we ran the article, CHINA MILITARY. READY FOR WAR?,” which focused on the Chinese military conducting exercises that simulated an attack on U.S. aircraft carriers.
The Financial Times, citing intelligence officials from the U.S. and other countries, reported at the time that the pilots in the H-6 bombers used the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group, which is in the South China Sea, as their mock target. The paper reported these intel officials said they gathered the information from cockpit conversations between pilots for the People’s Liberation Army during the exercise.
Taiwan’s military has reported near-daily incursions by the Chinese military, but Friday’s incident reached a level not seen, and it has the U.S. concerned about a Chinese attack on Taiwan, according to a report in Axios.
Adm. John Aquilino, selected to be the next commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he believes an attack on Taipei is “much closer to us than most think.” According to CNN, Aquilino said,
“We’ve seen aggressive actions earlier than we anticipated, whether it be on the Indian border or whether it be in Hong Kong or whether it be against the Uighurs. We’ve seen things that I don’t think we expected, and that’s why I continue to talk about a sense of urgency. We ought to be prepared today.”
Col. Wu Qian, China’s Defense Ministry spokesman, said in January that Taiwan is an “inalienable part of China.”
“The PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely defeat any attempt by the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists, and firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he said, according to the network.
Taiwan said it monitored the Chinese jets off its southwestern coast and communicated with the pilots through radio. The planes flew over the Bashi Channel, which is frequented by U.S. ships.
TREND FORECAST: Beijing has long declared that Taiwan is part of its territory under its “One China Principle,” and it is the mainland’s territory under its Constitution. We forecast that just as Beijing has clamped down on Hong Kong protests and taken full control, so, too, will they take control of Taiwan when they are ready.
Despite condemnations when they do so, there will be no military forces from other nations that will challenge Communist China’s military might. Indeed, America, with the largest military in the world, has not won a war since World War II and cannot even win against third-world nations such as Afghanistan after invading that nation some 20 years ago.
Thus, despite a lot of tough talk by American politicians, we maintain our forecast that militarily, the U.S. will not confront China, and, in time, the Chinese will take what they want and do what they want in their region.
Should war break out between China and Taiwan, we forecast the Taiwanese military will not aggressively fight back, since doing so would result in millions of deaths and mass destruction.

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