The next time someone peddles COVID fear, these facts may come in handy:
CFR vs. IFR
False numbers have driven COVID fear from the beginning. It has to do with confirmed Case Fatality Rate (CFR) numbers vs. Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) numbers. IFR is derived from unconfirmed cases that are likely occurring in a population, and unconfirmed cases are always much larger than medically confirmed cases used to calculate CFR.
In March 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus claimed, “Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”
That 3.4 percent number reflected CFR, not IFR. If the IFR had been used, the death number estimate would have been 1 percent or lower.
Of course, since March 2020, much more is known about treatments and IFR numbers. A recent Lenexa Laboratory study reported by the Trends Journal showed that IFR numbers through September 2020 were likely estimated at less than half of actual infections. That further reduces the overall death percentage.
IFR Death Rate 0.05 Percent for People Under 71 Years of Age
A recent article at mercola.com featured data compiled by Nick Hudson, an actuary and private equity investor who co-founded Pandemics Data & Analytics (PANDA).
PANDA has gathered much peer-reviewed info about COVID-related death rates. The COVID IFR for people under 71 years of age is minuscule, at just 0.05 percent.
The median IFR of 0.23 percent is also much lower than many people would believe. Those numbers were calculated by quantitative scientist John Ioannidis, professor of medicine at the Stanford Prevention Research Center. Ioannidis reviewed 61 seroprevalence studies to determine the actual numbers.
The article at mercola.com pointed out that based on the analysis by Ioannidis, IFR for COVID-19 is lower than that of the flu.
Lockdowns Have Had No Effect on Death Rates
Data compiled by PANDA has found no relationship between lockdowns and COVID-19 deaths per million people, according to Hudson.
Surveyed info includes studies like a recent one published in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. That study found that regions using mandatory stay‐at‐home orders, business closures, and other lockdown measures derived no significant benefit in stemming COVID case growth.
More info on Hudson’s work can be found at mercola.com here.
