TRUMP PLAYS THE WILD CARD: FIRES FIRST SHOT OF WWIII

Last Thursday, Iran’s top military commander, Major General Qassim Soleimani, was killed by a U.S. Reaper drone strike outside the Baghdad International airport. Soleimani had just arrived on a commercial flight to attend the funerals of Iraqi soldiers killed a few days earlier in American air strikes, and he was also scheduled to meet with Iraq’s prime minister. Authorized by...

PICK YOUR TEAM: THE FUTURE IS IN YOUR HANDS

By Laura Martin We all know that what’s happening in Iran is serious, and it’s distressing.  But what can you or I, the “average” person, do about it? I spoke with Gerald on the phone the “morning after” the news of President Trump’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s second-in-command general.  Gerald said (and I quote), “I am heartbroken.”  It was...

ECONOMIES SLOW DOWN, MARKETS MOVE UP

U.S.: Short-Term Highs, Long-Term Lows Despite warning signs of a global economic slowdown, Wall Street’s on a high. The S&P 500 is up 27.3 percent this year, its biggest annual gain since 2013, the Dow’s up 21 percent, and Nasdaq 32.8 percent. But for next year, the word on the Street is more growth but less robust.  Average expectations for...

E.U. STAYS ON THE CHEAP MONEY COURSE

Similar to the Fed Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) has an inflation target of 2 percent. The ECB had spent $3 trillion over almost four years, buying government and corporate bonds, yet the EU economy is expected to grow only 1.2 percent this year and inflation just 1 percent. Christine Lagarde, the new head of the European Central Bank,...

CHINA: THE WORLD’S BANKS KOWTOW

After an analyst at Swiss investment bank UBS publicly commented about a swine fever outbreak in China, the firm was disinvited to one of China’s major bond deals and the analyst was “put on leave.” Investment advisors and major banks have learned that lesson. When advising institutional investors and other major clients, the banks now stay mum on the investment...

TURKEY: MAKING MONEY CHEAPER

Turkey’s central bank cut its interest rate for the fourth time this year, hoping to kickstart lending and revive economic growth. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pressured the bank to cut rates by 10 points since July. Last week, the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee made another cut, dropping the repo rate to 12 percent. Erdoğan set a goal of 5...

LEBANON: GOING DOWN

As we state in our “Geopolitical Update,” credit rating firm Fitch warns that Lebanon is likely to default on its debt, as the fractured government cannot quell the political and financial crisis that has brought protesters into the streets of Beirut since October. The protests, sparked by rising unemployment, government corruption, and financial mismanagement, are intensifying. More than 40 protesters...

INDIA TAILSPIN

As we reported two weeks ago, economic growth in India has fallen by half this year, from 8.1 percent in the first quarter of the year to 4.5 percent in the third, as more borrowers and lenders default and the credit crisis deepens. The nation’s 2019 GDP will be the lowest in five years. The impact is hardest on poor...

SYRIA: U.S. BACKTRACKS ON PULLOUT

This past October, President Trump announced he was pulling American troops out of Syria, which, in fact, have been illegally in Syria since 2014.  He said, “I campaigned on bringing our soldiers back home, and that’s what I’m doing.” In an about-face, last Wednesday, the U.S. Secretary of Defense and a leading general told members of the House Armed Services...