The oil and gas industry will lead others in corporate defaults in 2021 and is likely to fail to make $15 to $18 billion in bond payments this year, ratings agency Fitch has predicted. The amount is more than twice as many companies in health care and manufacturing are expected to miss; those sectors are the next riskiest, Fitch said....
ECONOMIC REBOUND 2020: WINTER BLUES 2021
The new fiscal stimulus passed by Congress in the final days of 2020 likely will strengthen an economic rebound that will occur during the second half of this year. The program sends a $600 cash stipend to most U.S. adults and adds $300 to weekly unemployment payments for 11 weeks. The plan also extends other unemployment payments, continues eviction bans...
CORPORATE BOND MARKET BUBBLE
U.S. corporations borrowed a record $2.5 trillion in bonded debt in 2020, sending the American business sector’s debt-to-earnings ratio to another record high, surpassing the one set last year, Bank of America has reported. However, corporations show signs of being increasingly unable to repay those loans. One measure: the growing number of so-called “zombie companies,” whose interest payments have exceeded...
CONSUMER SPENDING RETREATS
U.S. consumer spending weakened by 0.4 percent in November, the first decline since April, as household incomes shrank 1.1 percent and new weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained near or above 800,000. Spending on goods dropped 1 percent, spending on services 0.2 percent. Big-ticket items fared worst. Auto sales were off 3.6 percent, and major appliances slipped 1.4 percent. Purchases...
HOTEL INDUSTRY WILL NOT RECOVER UNTIL 2023
Again, despite the travel and tourism industry stocks rising on stimulus/vaccine news, the rebound will be long and slow. In November, revenue per available room – a key measure of the hotel industry’s financial well-being – was half of what it was a year earlier, according to S&P Global Ratings. In 2021, the number will improve but still will remain...
STIMULUS BILL STIMULATES STOCKS
The $900-billion economic aid bill President Trump signed helped push stock markets to record highs as 2020 came to an end. Travel stocks perked up, trading at what some investors saw as bargain prices ahead of a summer economic recovery they believe will restart pleasure travel. In the new stimulus round, U.S. airlines will share $15 billion to bring back...
DOLLAR’S WEAKNESS 2021
After standing strong as a haven of value amid the unfolding economic crisis last spring, the U.S. dollar has lost about 12 percent of its value against a benchmark collection of other currencies. A key reason: U.S. interest rates were around 2 percent before the current economic crisis, placing them comfortably above those of most other nations. However, the U.S....
COVID CLAMPDOWNS MOTIVATE ONTRENDPRENEURS®
With people being suddenly put out of work and a new COVID World being created, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and the U.S. all have seen a jump in new business formations during 2020. The U.S. registered 82 percent more new businesses in 2020’s second quarter than a year earlier. OnTrendpreneurs® looking for new revenue streams are betting heavily on online...
ETHIOPIAN WAR RAGES ON
We have been reporting on the escalating war in Ethiopia since it broke out in early November when it’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, launched an attack against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) after the region held its own election in September without Ahmed’s approval. Last week, the BBC reported forces in Tigray...
ERDOGAN POWER GRAB OR LOSING POWER?
Human rights groups bristled at a newly passed law in Ankara, the capital of Turkey, that grants new government control over non-government organizations (NGOs), which critics say threaten any dissent in the country aimed at President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party. Tarik Beyham, Director of Amnesty International in Turkey, told the Financial Times the legislation enables the...