BELARUS VS. EU: AND THE WINNER IS?

Poland and Brussels, as of late, seem to make strange bedfellows.  The European Union has been fierce in its criticism of a recent court ruling in Warsaw that Brussels claims run counter to its standards for nations.
The disagreement grew to the point where there were rumors that Poland could plan to leave the union. (See “’POLEXIT’ PROTESTS IN POLAND: “EXIT THE EU” TREND GROWING,” “POLAND’S LINK WITH EU WORSENS. POLEXIT NEXT?” and “REFUGEE CRISIS WORSENING: POLAND TO DEPLOY ADDITIONAL 10,000 TROOPS AT BORDER.”)  
Poland has even clashed with the EU over how it is dealing with the migrant crush at its border with Belarus. Warsaw deployed 10,000 new troops to the border and erected a barbed-wire fence. When Warsaw asked for Brussels to help fund the fence construction since the migration surge impacts the entire continent, Ursula von der Leyen, the EU chief, denied the request and said there “will be no funding of barbed wire and walls.”  
Earlier this month, the EU seemed to be opposed to Poland’s “heavy-handed” approach to dealing with the crisis.   
As the refugee crisis continues to escalate from Africa, Middle-East and war torn nations into Europe, the EU position has rapidly changed.   
We have reported that Poland and other EU countries believe that Belarus’ leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who is backed by Russia, is purposely sending migrants by the thousands, and mainly from the Middle East and Africa, into Poland as a new kind of hybrid war on Europe over sanctions. Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, called Lukashenko’s strategy a “cynical power play.” 
Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, was in Warsaw last week to meet with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to discuss the issue and “offer solidarity,” The New York Times reported. 
“Poland, which is facing a serious crisis, should enjoy the solidarity and unity of the whole European Union. It is a hybrid attack, a brutal attack, a violent attack, and a shameful attack. In the wake of such measures, the only response is to act in a decisive manner, with unity, in line with our core values,” Michel said, according to the paper.  
In the meantime, the conditions faced by these migrants—stuck in the wilderness between Belarus and Poland—have been described as brutal. The Times reported that at least 10 people have died.  
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to reign in Lukashenko, but Putin said Russia has “absolutely nothing to do with” the crisis. 
“I want to tell you something else. I want everyone to know. We have absolutely nothing to do with it. Everyone is trying to improve responsibility on us for any reason and for no reason at all. Our aviation companies are not transporting these people. None of our companies are,” he said. 
Putin also denied the claim that Lukashenko is somehow behind the surge. He told Russia 24, a state broadcaster, that the Minsk leader said that he had nothing to do with the migrants. 
Lukashenko has eased entry for arrivals from the Middle East and these migrants, in turn, take buses or taxis to the border where Belarusian forces help them pass through into Poland. Once there, many make their way to other countries in the EU.  
“Yes, there are certain groups engaged in transporting these people to European countries, but they have been operating for a long time,” he said. 
Ylva Johansson, the European commissioner for home affairs, said during an interview last summer, that the issue playing out at the border is not a migration issue, but “part of the aggression of Lukashenko toward Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, with the aim to destabilize the E.U,” according to the Times. 
TREND FORECAST: When former U.S. President Donald Trump wanted to build a wall to stop the flow of refugees into the United States, he was chastised by politicians and the media at home and abroad. Now, with the flood of refugees seeking safe haven nations to escape poverty, government corruption, crime and violence… many of those who had condemned Trump’s actions will be—and are—calling for border protection. 
Again, we maintain our forecast for strong anti-immigrant, anti-establishment populist political movements to accelerate now and in the years to come.