AS GOES AUTO SALES, SO GOES THE ECONOMY


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As we have long noted, a key indicator to note is the health of the world’s auto industry, which makes up 5.7 percent of global economic output and 8 percent of world trade.

In China, the world’s largest auto market, vehicle production and sales declined 6.2 percent and 5.2 respectively in September. 

Passenger vehicle sales in India have declined for 11 straight months, with sales down 33.4 percent in September from a year ago. 

Auto sales are also slowing in the U.S., with new vehicles sales in September down 11.1 percent year-to-date. 

In August, auto sales in Europe were down 8.4 percent. Continental AG, a German auto-parts supplier and the largest in the world, stated it was taking a €2.5 billion write-down.

PUBLISHER’S NOTE: We highlight auto sales since they, after home purchases, are a key indicator of consumer buying power. The current softening of sales at a time of rising consumer debt portends a continuing decline of global economic growth and signals the early stages of the “Greatest Depression.” 

Already in the U.S., in the three months that ended in June, auto loans that were 90 or more days late made up 4.6 percent of total balances, which is near its highest level since 2011. 

On the credit card front, 5.17 percent of loans that turned seriously delinquent in that period, rose at the fastest rate since 2012, according to Federal Reserve data.

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