ARMENIA VS. AZERBAIJAN: SPREADING WAR

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan continued to destabilize the region last week, with Armenian President Armen Sarkissian warning the area could continue to descend into the abyss and become a “new Syria.”
Sarkissian said Turkey has emerged as a “bully in the region” and has pushed aside Russia from its role as a mediator between the two sides over the Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh, which has seen its worst violence in over 25 years that started on 27 September.
The Armenian leader called on the U.S. and Russia to apply more pressure on Turkey and stop the “full war” from raging. He said Ankara’s presence has destroyed the balance there.
“What is a NATO state [Turkey] doing in Azerbaijan helping to fight Nagorno-Karabakh? Explain to me,” he said.
The region has been a source of tension since 1988, when the two former Soviet republics began a war that raged until 1994. The Times reported under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara provides weapons and training to Azerbaijan, and there is evidence Turkey has engaged in some of the fighting, a claim the country has denied.
According to media reports, there have been hundreds of fatalities and tens of thousands displaced.
Artak Beglaryan, Nagorno-Karabakh’s rights ombudsman, told the AFP that “preliminary estimates, some 50 percent of Karabakh’s population and 90 percent of women and children – some 70,000 to 75,000 people – have been displaced,” according to Antiwar.com.
Sarkissian called on the international community to “step up the effort to stop the clashes. And the focus of the effort should be on Turkey. The moment Turkey is taken out of the equation we will be closer to a ceasefire and return to the negotiation table.”
The Associated Press reported last Saturday that Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to what seemed like a short-lived cease-fire, which some said never went into effect. The Armenians accused Azerbaijan of a bombing that reportedly killed a civilian. Azerbaijan’s top military official called the accusation by Armenia a “provocation.”
The cease-fire talks were prompted by an invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit Moscow, RT.com reported. Russia, much like Turkey, plays an important role in the conflict because without Russia, Armenia would be overwhelmed.
Sarkissian likened Turkey’s effort in the Caucuses to “ethnic cleansing” and recalled the Armenian genocide in 1915 at the hands of the rulers of the Ottoman Empire. About 1.5 million Armenians were killed. Adding to the antagonism, Ankara still refuses to admit its role in the genocide of nearly 1.5 million Armenians following the end of World War I.
On Sunday, Azerbaijan ratcheted up the tension by accusing Armenia of attacking its cities and villages in violation of the tentative ceasefire. Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev claimed missiles fired into the region’s second largest city, Ganja, resulted in nine deaths and over 30 injuries. Aliyev went as far as calling the attack a “War crime.”
Conversely Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian officials asserted the Azerbaijani claims to be false while counter-proposing that over the weekend, Azerbaijani forces had shelled Stepanakert, a regional capital.
TREND FORECAST: As we have reported, Turkey’s currency has fallen to all-time lows against the dollar as its economy slumps into the “Greatest Depression.” Moreover, the nation is in conflict with Libya, Syria, and Greece.
Confirming what we had forecast, this Sunday, the New York Post reported,

 “Erdoğan’s backing of Azerbaijan is a useful distraction from his sagging domestic economy, but it turns a long-standing local conflict into a bigger geopolitical competition. Armenia can resist only with the backing of Russia, which has been fueling that side of the arms race – which means it’s just a step or two to direct conflict between Moscow and Ankara. ‘We are one step away from a large scale war,’ says Olesya Vartanyan of the International Crisis Group.”