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The world is on the precipice of an unprecedented economic calamity.
As we have thoroughly detailed in The Trends Journal over the years with facts and indisputable data… the game is rigged. Thus, it is difficult to forecast a precise time and date for the calamity to become “official.”
Need more “rigging” proof? Read this week’s Trends Journal article: “TWO JPMORGAN EX-TRADERS CONVICTED OF FRAUD”.
How about this headline story in today’s Wall Street on Parade: “During Both Obama and Trump Administrations, the Justice Department Has Looked the Other Way at Crimes by the Powerful.”
They go on to note, “The Justice Department’s credibility was dealt an irreparable blow during the Obama administration for its hands off attitude toward prosecuting crimes by Wall Street titans. The crisis of confidence deepened further during the Trump circus at the Department of Justice.”
Therefore, be it illegal activities from The Street’s money junkies, the Banksters bandits and/or the government crime syndicate’s dirty dealings, market manipulation with their cheap money pumping scams, quantitative easing bond-buying swindles, bailouts, Plunge Protection Team racketeers, etc., the game is rigged. And as George Carlin said: “It’s one big club, and you ain’t in it.”
When will the “crash” become “official?”
It won’t happen until the equity bomb explodes and Wall Street comes tumbling down.
For example, while someone can be seriously ill for months—or years—despite their ongoing suffering, they are not “dead” until the system collapses.
The world economy is seriously ill. But despite its worsening condition, such as the latest reports of China’s stumbling economy and recessionary/depressionary conditions spreading across the planet, the patient is still alive, being pumped up with monetary methadone.
The Crash is Coming
We are trend forecasters, not futurists. Tracking trends is the understanding of where we are and how we got here to see where we are going.
No one can predict the future. There are too many wild cards, be they made by humans or by nature. As clearly illustrated by the actions of governments and financial sectors they continually keep dealing wild cards from the rigged deck.
Our Globalnomic® trend forecasting system is based on the understanding that all things are connected. Therefore, it is essential to identify and analyze social, geopolitical, environmental, health, agriculture, tourism, retail, commodities, wars, living standards, manufacturing, etc. We expand the range of our perception of cause and effect, we make connections between fields, we think globally.
On the human, or in-human side, of unpredictable wild cards, the most recent among them is the Ukraine War. As we had noted before Russia attacked Ukraine, rather than negotiate for Peace, the warmongers of the world have pushed for war against Russia… with the United States leading the charge by sending some $60 billion to Ukraine to keep bloodying the killing fields.
And as we have forecast, World War III has begun and if it does not end it will lead to nuclear annihilation, which will therefore negate any significance of what the equity markets are doing and corporate profit and loss statements.
War
World War III has begun, and as the cover of the 22 February Trends Journal illustrates, it will escalate into a nuclear war. Today, the Russian embassy said what we have been saying “The United States continues to act with no regard to other countries’ security and interests, which contributes to an increase in nuclear risks.”
“The [U.S.’s] steps to further engage in a hybrid confrontation with Russia in the context of the Ukrainian crisis are fraught with unpredictable escalation and a direct military clash of nuclear powers.”
Washington, the embassy noted, has exited from the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the 1992 Treaty Open Skies arms control agreements.
We have noted that the U.S. and NATO are not fighting a proxy war with Russia…they are at war with Russia. President Vladimir Putin made it clear today when he told a conference in Moscow today that “the situation in Ukraine shows that the U.S. is trying to prolong this conflict,” and Washington was doing all it can to expand its hegemonic military status.
Noting the AUKUS security pact signed last year between Australia, the U.K. and U.S., Putin said “We also see that the collective West is seeking to extend its bloc system to the Asia-Pacific region similarly to NATO in Europe. For this purpose, bellicose military-political alliances are being formed, such as AUKUS and the others.”
Putin also took a shot at U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan as a “reckless” and “thoroughly planned provocation,” and “an insolent demonstration of disrespect for the sovereignty of other countries and for its international obligations.”
What does this have to do with the economy of the United States and the world?
Everything!
All things are connected. While prices of various commodities have retreated from their recent highs following the Russian invasion, they still remain inflated and the effects are being felt throughout Main Street. Thus, the longer the war rages and the more sanctions are imposed on Russia, the higher affected commodity prices will rise.
And, as Putin pointed out, with the United States ramping up its “thoroughly planned provocation,” with China, should military confrontation explode between the U.S. and China, it will ignite a global socioeconomic and geopolitical catastrophe… which is on the near horizon.
Nature’s Wild Card
Again, no one can predict the future—there are too many wild cards, and nature is playing one now. As stated by an EU Commission scientist in response to the latest data from the European Drought Observatory, Europe is suffering its worst drought in 500 years.
With a lack of rain and unprecedented heatwaves—and a shortage of energy thanks to EU sanctions on Russia which supplies them with some 40 percent of its gas consumption—from crop failures, to dried up rivers and lakes to collapsing energy supplies, the reality is that it will have serious socioeconomic impacts.
Beyond the weather’s negative effects on the equity markets, should the heat waves persist and rain stops falling, this wild card being dealt by nature will cripple countless businesses, spike inflation, inflict unprecedented restrictions and difficulties on entire populations… which in turn will escalate into political unrest.
Indeed, all things are connected.
The dry weather patterns are also plaguing much of the planet. Even in the United States, from coast to shining coast… it’s drying up. Thus, on just the economic side of events, with rivers and lakes drying up and crop failures intensifying, prices of affected commodities will sharply inflate.
This in turn will push up inflation rates while also cutting consumer purchasing power.
And, prior to the current human and nature wild cards that have just been played, the inhuman COVID War wild card by political dictators across the planet two and a half years ago that locked down economies and has destroyed the lives and livelihoods of billions, has inflicted incalculable damage.
Yes, the world is on the precipice of a socioeconomic calamity, but equity markets have nothing to do with reality.
TREND FORECAST: Considering the levels of equity market and national/global economic criminality, it is difficult to forecast the precise time and date for the market to crash. Much of it depends on how fast and how much the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
Having denied inflationary pressures for nearly two years—and long failing to raise interest rates despite inflation sharply exceeding its made-up 2 percent target—should the Fed come up with a reason not to raise rates, they will keep them low. Should they only raise rates by another 100 basis points by year’s end, it will signal continued market growth.
But again, there are the wild cards! And as socioeconomic and geopolitical conditions—and should those being played by nature—continue to deteriorate across the globe, the markets will come tumbling down.
LAST WEEK: STOCKS RISE ON INFLATION NEWS AND HOPES FOR FED
Selling more bullshit for the crowd to swallow, despite July’s inflation rate spiking to 8.5 percent, the NASDAQ and Standard & Poor’s 500 indexes posted their fourth consecutive positive weeks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained ground last week. Why? Because the sky high inflation rate was just a tiny .6 percent lower than June’s 9.1 inflation rate.
And, as we have long noted, the inflation numbers (courtesy of the government crime syndicate) are rigged. For the more accurate inflation rate, we suggest John Williams www.shadowstats.com which estimates U.S. inflation in July hit 16.1 percent.
It has been the longest upward run for the S&P and NASDAQ since November, when both moved up five weeks in a row.
The Dow added 2.9 percent last week, the NASDAQ and S&P each grew by more than 3 percent.
Also last week, producer prices posted their slowest rate of gains since October, which we report in “Producer Prices Slow Their Pace of Gains” in this issue.
Investors are hoping the lower inflation rate will persuade the U.S. Federal Reserve to moderate its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes.
Also, commodity prices have retreated from their highs, spot rates for ocean shipping have eased, and China’s economic woes seem to have become less dire, The Wall Street Journal noted.
More modest rate increases could prevent the economy from falling into a recession.
Moderating gains in interest rates also could fertilize prices of more speculative assets, such as growth stocks and even cryptocurrencies.
However, the worsening energy crisis in Europe is likely to continue to press energy prices higher, which can factor broadly into inflation and even threaten to ignite a global recession.
Also, the yield curve has reached its greatest inversion since 2008, according to Tradeweb, a trading website.
The yield curve is said to be inverted when yields are higher on short-term treasury securities than longer-term ones.
The curve inverts when investors think the economy will do better in the short-term than it will later on.
On Friday, yields on two-year treasury notes moved up to 3.257 percent, while the ten-year yield slipped to 2.848 percent.
Gold inched up 1.1 percent to $1,801.
Bitcoin’s price bounced through the week, ending up 2.5 percent at $24,419.
Brent crude oil lingers below $100, trading barely above $98 at 5 p.m. U.S. EDT on 12 August. West Texas Intermediate, which sets U.S. domestic prices, fell to $92.09.
Oil prices have fallen more than 25 percent since March, when Brent peaked at $123.70, the WSJ said.
The U.S. average price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell below $4 last week and sat at $3.95 on 15 August.
Abroad, stocks also had a positive week.
The all-Europe Stoxx 600 gained 1.2 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 2.2 percent and the KOSPI index in South Korea grew by 1.9 percent.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index ticked up 0.4 percent.
On the Chinese mainland, the SSE Composite increased 1.9 percent and the CSI Composite by 1.2 percent.
TREND FORECAST: The “lower” 8.6 percent inflation rate data sparked equity market gambler’s hopes for increasing odds that the Fed will only raise interest rates by 50 basis points when they meet in September… they are now on holiday, as is much of the world.
As we have forecast, with pressure easing for higher interest rates, the U.S. equity markets, minus a wild card event, will continue to creep higher. But it is also important to note that reality will bite in autumn when the people are out of a “summer state of mind” and back into the real world.
NASDAQ: Bull Keeps Running
After being thrashed in this year’s second quarter, NASDAQ expanded by 2.9 percent on 10 August, leading the tech-laden index into a bull market, defined as one rising 20 percent or more above its most recent low.
Markets rose on news that inflation had eased its pace of gains in July, raising hopes that inflation may moderate over the longer term and the U.S. Federal Reserve might soften its aggressive campaign of interest-rate hikes.
NASDAQ’s turnaround ended the index’s longest bear market since 2008 during the Great Recession.
However, the index remains down 18 percent this year after sinking 32 percent to a bottom on 16 June compared to where it ended 2021.
Also on 10 August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.6 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 2.1 percent. Those indexes have gained 11 and 15 percent, respectively, from their June lows but are still off 8.3 and 12 percent this year.
With the COVID War winding down as we had forecast and the easing of vax, testing, mask wearing and other mandates, shares of tourism and travel businesses fared especially well last Friday, with Carnival Cruise Lines, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, and Royal Caribbean Group among the S&P’s best performers, The Wall Street Journal said.
Financial firms also shone, including Discover Financial Services, Capital One Financial, and Synchrony Financial.
Many investors now think that if the Fed continues its aggressive policy on raising interest rates, the economy will be damaged more than helped, the WSJ noted, and the Fed would be forced to cut rates later.
As a result, short-term government bond yields have climbed above those for longer-term securities, creating an “inverted yield curve” that often has foretold recessions in the past, as we reported in “Yield Curve Inverts for First Time in 16 Years, Hinting at Recession” (29 Mar 2022) and in our Markets Overview on 5 April, 2022.
YESTERDAY: CHINA’S ECONOMY SLOWS
The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 151.39 points, or 0.45 percent to 33,912.44 and the S&P 500 also saw gains to close up 16.99 points to 4,297.14. The NASDAQ Composite increased by 80.87 points, or 0.62 percent, to 13,128.05.
The big news on The Street Monday was the grim economic data out of Beijing that prompted the People’s Bank of China to inject $60 billion into the economy and cut the interest rate on a one-year loan from 2.85 percent to 2.75 percent to spur growth.
Economists don’t believe the country is going far enough to spark growth and say its “Zero-COVID” policy will continue to be a drag.
The decision by the central bank to cut rates was seen as evidence that Beijing is worried about the slowdown before President Xi Jinping is expected to take on a third term during the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in November.
Data showed a slowdown in every sector, from real estate to factory output.
TRENDPOST: This comes as no surprise to Trends Journal subscribers. We have long forecast that China’s zero-COVID policies of locking down hundreds of millions of people and businesses would bring their economy down, while also hurting revenue of retail importers… especially in the luxury brand sectors. Thus, while Raymond Yeung, Greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, told Bloomberg, “July’s economic data is very alarming”… it comes of no shock for those who are on-trend and reading History Before it Happens®.
Investors in the U.S. will also be closely watching retail earnings out later this week, which begins with Walmart and Target. The two stores are seen as inflation bellwethers. Last week, the consumer price index dropped to 8.5 percent. The rate was 9.1 percent in June.
Both Target and Amazon took a pounding in May when they cut their profit outlook due, in part, to rising costs. Analysts predict that Walmart’s adjusted earnings per share will sink for the second time.
TRENDPOST: China’s COVID-19 lockdowns were embraced by countries around the world as an effective way to slow the spread of the virus. But as we detailed when they were being implemented, “They were making this shit up.” All the lockdowns and other draconian mandates were based on political science and not scientific data. As a result, not only did the guidelines not work, they only killed economies and destroyed billions of lives and livelihoods.
George Soros noted in February that Xi’s chance at a third term could be in danger over how he handled the COVID-19 outbreak. The finance billionaire said Xi’s attempts to impose “total control” over the public have sparked a fight within the Chinese Communist Party. While Xi is seen as the country’s most powerful leader in decades there is a chance that he will have to share his powers with other members of his party, The Associated Press said.
“With Mr. Xi there is little room for checks and balances,” Soros wrote in an op-ed last year. “He will find it difficult to adjust his policies to a changing reality, because he rules by intimidation. His underlings are afraid to tell him how reality has changed for fear of triggering his anger. This dynamic endangers the future of China’s one-party state.”
TREND FORECAST: This is China. Xi will do what he wishes as the head of the Chinese crime syndicate-in-charge. Besides, with or without Xi, China is on its own path and nothing and nobody will steer them in a different direction of enriching their “Money and Power” initiative.
European Markets closed slightly higher on Monday.
The FTSE 100 was up 8.26 points, or 0.11 percent to 7,509.15, and the STOXX 600 was up 1.48 points, or 0.34 percent to 442.35.
In Asia, China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite closed down 0.80 points, or 0.02 percent to 3,276.09 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 134.76 points, or 0.67 percent to 20,040.86. The Shenzhen Component was up 0.33 percent to 12,460.22.
Besides the data about China’s economy, the Asian market has been nervous over tension in the Taiwan Strait and supply chain issues with sporadic COVID-19 lockdowns in China.
China showed weakness in its industrial production, which grew by 3.8 percent, which was off from the 4.6 percent in a Reuters poll, according to CNBC. The retail growth forecast was expected to come in at 5 percent, but increased just 2.7 percent.
OIL: Crude prices fell on Monday after data was released that showed the economic slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Oil prices dropped to pre-Ukraine War levels—or more than 30 percent from 2022 highs.
Brent crude fell more than 5 percent on Monday to $93.19 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude futures sank $2.68 per barrel to $89.41. The Wall Street Journal noted that WTI prices were down about 30 percent from their highs in March when it was trading at about $124 a barrel.
TRENDPOST: Traders looked at China’s slowdown as something of a “double whammy” because Saudi Arabia announced days ago that it will increase output by 1 million barrels a day by 2027, the paper said. Iran could also reenter the market amid talks of reviving the nuclear deal reached under President Obama.
Robert Yawger, executive director for energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA, told the paper, “The largest exporter in the world is going to increase production and the largest customer—their economic numbers were worse across the board. You barely could have picked a worse scenario.”
GOLD/SILVER: Gold prices fell Monday after reports out of China about a slowing economy, which sent the U.S. dollar higher.
Spot gold fell 1.28 percent to $1,778.74 per ounce and U.S. gold futures also fell by 1.14 percent to $1,794.8.
We have noted that gold prices are often impacted when the Federal Reserve moves to raise interest rates. Gold investors will be eyeing the minutes from the central bank’s July meeting for any new evidence of upcoming rate hikes.
There is already evidence that the central bank is not done with interest rate hikes to get control of soaring inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Financial Times, “There’s good news on the month-to-month data that consumers and business are getting some relief, but inflation remains far too high and not near our price stability goal.”
The dollar index strengthened 0.5 percent on Monday.
TREND FORECAST: We maintain our forecast that for gold to sustain strength, prices must stay in the high $1,900 per ounce range and when they solidify above $2,200 per ounce, gold will spike to new highs. But, as we have noted, the downside of the precious metal would be around the $1,730 range. With the strength of the U.S. dollar and increased interest rates, gold will lose some of its shine in the near future.
BITCOIN: Bitcoin reached $25,000 for the first time since June on Monday before losing some steam as trading continued during the day. We have been reporting that bitcoin has been hitting resistance at about $24,000 and has fluctuated along with tech stock gyrations.
We have noted that bitcoin has taken a hit since its highs in November but has shown signs of life since hitting its recent low on 18 June, when it was trading at $17,592.78. The crypto has hit a lot of headwinds in recent weeks. Investors shied away from bitcoin when it seemed apparent that the Federal Reserve would move to raise interest rates.
The recent consumer price index numbers that came in slightly better than expected have some investors optimistic that the Fed will not move to dramatically increase rates in September.
TREND FORECAST: The value of bitcoin will continue to hit resistance at the $24,000 to $25,000 range based on the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue its monetary tightening strategy to bring down inflation, which is still high.
Crypto investors will try to read the tea leaves from July’s meeting, but regional presidents have been clear that they are not comfortable with inflation running at 8.5 percent and more increases are expected. But as we note, should the current economic trajectory stay its course, interest rate hikes will slow down.
TODAY: HOUSING STARTS GO BUST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 239.57 points, or 0.71 percent, to close the trading day at 34,152.01. The S&P 500 dropped 8.06 points, or 0.19 percent to 4,305.20, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 25.50 points, or 0.19 percent, to end the day down 13,102.55.
The Commerce Department announced a 9.6 percent drop in housing starts that represents the slowest pace in about a year and a half.
This comes as no surprise to Trends Journal subscribers since we had forecast the housing market was artificially pumped up with record low mortgage rates and over $6 trillion in government stimulus.
The trading day vacillated in early trading until Walmart and Home Depot both reported better-than-expected earnings that gave confidence to traders that consumer spending is still strong despite inflationary pressures.
The Federal Reserve’s statistical release also came out today that showed industrial production increased last month, with manufacturing up 0.7 percent last month compared to June. The number represented a 3.2 percent increase from July 2021.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 2.822 percent, which was an increase from 2.790 percent.
TREND FORECAST: Economists warn of stagflation, a condition of rising prices and flatlining economies. However, the reality will be Dragflation, our Top 2022 Trend in which economies contract while prices keep climbing.
The newly released housing numbers show the U.S. economy is not as strong as the Biden administration wants you to believe.
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, told The Wall Street Journal that the housing numbers, when combined with the downturns in tech, manufacturing, and foreign economies, shows “a bona-fide recession looks more likely than not over the next year.”
We’ve noted that the signs have been in place before these sobering housing numbers. Wages must remain high to hold good workers in a tight job market and the price of commodities and inflation continue to soar. What’s more, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates high enough or quickly enough to rein in rising prices.
European markets were in the green today, with Britain’s FTSE 100 closing up 26.91 points, or 0.36 percent to 7,536.06 and the STOXX 600 up 0.72 points, to end the day at 443.07.
In Asia, the Shanghai Composite was up 1.80 points, or 0.05 percent to 3,277.88, and the Shenzhen Component was also up 9.89, or 0.079 percent to 12,470.11. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng took a 210.34-point hit, and closed the day down 1.05 percent to 19,830.52. South Korea’s Kospi was up 5.58, or 0.22 percent to close at 2,533.52.
Real estate stocks in China were in the green today after it was revealed that policymakers planned to provide liquidity support to China Bond Insurance Co. so the state-owned company will be able to provide guarantees on bonds issued in local markets. REDD, the intelligence group, first reported on Beijing’s move.
One trader in Shanghai told the Financial Times that the move was expected and “as long as there’s liquidity backing, market sentiment will improve.”
China Bond Insurance Co will provide selected private property developers “unconditional and irrevocable joint liability guarantee” on medium-term notes, sources told Channel News Asia.
Policymakers hope the injection will help prop up the country’s struggling real estate market that has recorded 11 straight months of losses.
Yan Yuejin, research director at Shanghai-based E-house China R&D Institute, told the Global Times on Monday, “The figures show that the index of China’s new house prices continues to cool amid pressure, and there is an urgent need for active policies around the country to stimulate a market recovery.”
On Tuesday, China’s central bank cut key interest rates in an effort to spur economic growth after data showed a slowing economy. Beijing’s 10-year yield dropped 7.8 basis points to 2.655 percent, which was the lowest level since May 2020. The Wall Street Journal noted that yields on Chinese bonds have been higher than their U.S. equivalents, but U.S. Treasuries were about 16.5 basis points higher on Monday.
GOLD/SILVER: Gold was trading down $7.40, or 0.41 percent to $1,790.80 as of 4 p.m. ET, and silver was also down 0.82 percent to $20.105.
Gold prices continue to hit resistance in the U.S. as economic data shows vulnerabilities.
As we have noted, gold has hovered around $1,800 due to a still-strong U.S. dollar and higher interest rates. A strong U.S. dollar makes the precious metal more expensive to foreign investors and higher interest rates make Treasuries more attractive because they are interest-bearing investments.
Gold investors have been cautious and there is an expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue its monetary-tightening efforts to bring down inflation. Investors will be eyeing the release of the minutes from the central bank’s July meeting to get a sense of the bank’s next move, but while all indications point to another 75 basis point increase, as we detail in this Trends Journal, they may be raised only 50 basis points…which will be bullish for gold.
Thomas Barkin, the Richmond Federal Reserve president, said he’d like to see a period of sustained inflation under control.
“Until we do, I think we’re just going to have to continue to move rates into restrictive territory,” he said.
TREND FORECAST: As we note in the JPMorgan Chase article is this and previous Trends Journal’s, the gold market is rigged and the precious metal should be trading at much higher levels as a safe-haven asset. Inflation is still near 40-year highs and China’s economic data threatens to upend the world economy, which has still not recovered from COVID-19 lockdowns.
The Central Banksters have not raised interest rates at the levels needed to appropriately deal with inflationary pressures because it would bring down the equities market—and Main Street.
With gold trading at about $1,791.00, we maintain our forecast that the prices can continue to sink to the low $1,710 per ounce level. For gold to maintain strength, prices must stay in the high $1,900 per ounce range and when they solidify above $2,200 per ounce, gold will spike to new highs.
OIL: Oil was trading lower today due to a confluence of issues ranging from China’s slowing economy and the possibility that Iranian oil could be brought back to the market.
Brent crude was trading down $3.30 or 3.45 percent at 91.82 as of 3 p.m. ET, and was also down $3.33, or 3.72 percent to $86.07 per barrel. The drop in prices was a far cry from earlier estimates from economists that the price of a barrel could hit $200 due to the Ukraine War.
Oil prices are in the same range they were before Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February.
The key driver has been the slowing Chinese economy due to widespread COVID-19 lockdowns, a possible housing bubble, and supply chain concerns. Bloomberg said demand for oil fell in China by 9.7 percent in July.
Iran is currently mulling a new draft nuclear agreement intended to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. The agreement would limit Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, officials told CNN. If a deal is struck, Tehran could add an additional million barrels a day of oil back to the global market.
TRENDPOST: In our 15 March issue, we noted that the top factor in the oil market would be if China continued its COVID-19 lockdowns to “fight COVID War 2.0.” Beijing is still enforcing its “Zero-COVID” effort, and it could further drag down the global economy.
It is challenging to forecast the oil market because there are so many wild cards. Israel launched recent strikes in Gaza, and it is unclear how Tel Aviv would respond if a new nuclear pact is signed with Tehran. The Ukraine War also shows no sign of easing. Although oil prices continue to come down, a major shock could easily send prices up to the $125 per barrel range that would bring down economies and equity markets… as it did at the onset of the Panic of ’08.
BITCOIN: Bitcoin was trading lower today after touching $25,000 on Monday.
The world’s most popular cryptocurrency was trading down $218.40, or 0.91 percent to 23,879.40 at 2:10 p.m. ET.
CoinDesk noted that “Crypto Twitter”—Twitter users who discuss market trends in bitcoin trading—see the possibility that its value could fall back toward $16,400 per coin due to its recent “rising wedge” pattern, which is common in bear markets.
Investopedia.com describes rising wedges as patterns that show price movements trends upward “with pivot highs and lows converging toward a single point known as the apex. When it is accompanied by declining volume, it can signal a trend reversal and a continuation of the bear market.”
Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, wrote in a market update published Sunday that “a rising wedge pattern is forming within the bear flag pattern, strengthening the case for this fall lower and potential test $16,400,” CoinDesk reported.
TRENDPOST: The Trends Journal has noted that bitcoin tends to do well when the U.S. dollar is weakened, and interest rates remain low. But a weak dollar is not in the cards in the current or near future. The dollar remains strong and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note increased 4 basis points today to 2.831 percent.