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As we have continually noted over the years, President Dwight David Eisenhower, who, as Supreme Allied Commander during World War II and two term U.S. president had warned the nation in his 17 January 1961 farewell address that the military/industrial complex was robbing the nation of the genius of the scientists, sweat of the labors and future of the children.
Indeed, not only was he correct, considering the string of military defeats since the second world war and the scores of trillions of dollars and millions of lives wasted in fighting them, Ike was perhaps the closest thing to a certified military genius to have occupied the White House since that war. Every other U.S. president seems to have shown the folly of making military decisions based on politics.
Now, American military leaders are questioning the wisdom of the Biden administration’s plan to bring America’s military presence and influence in Afghanistan to an end. In a 10 June The New York Times article they describe this as the military “introducing flexibility” into Biden & Co.’s withdrawal of American personnel and materiel. However, after an analysis of what is being suggested it appears more likely an acknowledgement of what kind of grim future Afghanistan is likely to face… with or without U.S. ground and air power.
Pentagon officials are “considering asking for permission” to carry out airstrikes in the not unlikely event that the capital city of Kabul should be in danger of being overrun by the Taliban, a scenario that could be seen as a direct consequence of the U.S. withdrawing its assets.
Biden and his close advisors are said to be “grappling” with a number of issues about post-withdrawal Afghanistan, regarding which they are at odds with the Pentagon. These include whether and how to carry out counter-terrorism operations to prevent Al Qaeda from re-establishing its influence, and figuring out how to support ongoing CIA intelligence-gathering and training of Afghanistan’s own forces, which may be done through the use of privately employed military “contractors.”
Rural areas of Afghanistan are already back under Taliban control, and there seem to be no plans to take any action. Even protecting the country’s second-largest city, Kandahar, may not be considered sufficiently important. But apparently the fall of Kabul is where a line may be drawn.
When, in April, Biden announced the withdrawal, he promised to support the government of Afghanistan, and said that although U.S. military involvement was ending, diplomatic and humanitarian involvement would continue. He said that military strikes would occur only for anti-terrorism or if American interests were threatened.
Afghani officials say they were told that the U.S. would act to stop any takeover of large cities, but the NYT article characterizes that as “a vague statement without any clear backing.” And the closing of American bases in Afghanistan makes the staging of any airstrikes much more complicated.
TREND FORECAST: President Biden said that military strikes would occur only for anti-terrorism or if American interests were threatened. This has been a line to wage wars despite no clear indication, however, of just what those American interests were.
As Gerald Celente has noted, “would the United States have invaded Iraq if their major export was broccoli.” Was oil the American interest threatened?
Former general and now Biden’s Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, when asked if the U.S. would deploy air power to defend Afghani cities, was non-committal, claiming the question was “hypothetical.” But he may be typical of Pentagon-types who don’t want to state publicly that they see the fall of Afghanistan as inevitable after U.S. troops leave. Our article of 23 February, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY TO KEEP AFGHAN WAR GOING, quoted Austin as, at that time, being “in no hurry” to “undertake a hasty…withdrawal” from Afghanistan.
Therefore, we forecast that while there will be a troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, military involvement will continue at various levels under the guise of fighting terrorism.
In addition, the Afghan civil war will rage and the U.S. supported government will be overthrown by the Taliban.