Prior to the declaration of the COVID War, America’s mass transit systems were falling into disrepair. Last spring, the once-gradual decline of America’s mass transit systems was accelerated to near warp-speed by political lockdowns. Many systems that slowly had been losing riders suddenly experienced a decimation in ridership almost overnight.
Ben Fried of Transit Center, a non-profit advocating for improved public transportation in American cities, stated, “At the peak, it was down 90-95%. Now, depending on the system, it’s typically down about 75% of normal rates.”
The MTA, America’s largest mass transit system, which services the New York City metro area, has seen a similar decline in ridership. The New York Times reported on 14 October, “Weekday ridership is down 70% compared with pre-pandemic levels. Ridership on the commuter rail lines is recovering even more slowly.”
CBS Boston recently reported similar declines in ridership: “Ridership on the subway is at 24.5% of pre-pandemic levels; on buses it’s about 40%… Ridership on the Commuter Rail is ‘significantly lower’ at 12% of pre-pandemic levels. There are only about 15,000 riders during the morning rush hour, which is 8.5% of normal peak time.”
With the decline in ridership often comes an increase in crime.
According to New York Police Department statistics, subway crime is up across several major categories: homicides, rapes, robberies, burglaries, and vandalism are all higher than last year at this time. The six homicides recorded year-to-date are particularly alarming when compared to the three total homicides recorded during 2017, 2018, and 2019. Rapes have also increased from two last year to five already this year.
The rising violent crime rate reinforces the ridership decline:
– The ridership decline reduces the revenue.
– The revenue reduction exacerbates the rising debt.
– The rising debt results in service cuts.
– Service cuts lead to decreased ridership and increased crime.
– And the vicious cycle repeats.
The sharp decline in ridership is devastating for transit systems nationwide, which were already strapped for cash prior to the political pandemic. The New York Times writes:
“The authority [MTA] was burdened by debt before the crisis. Earlier in the year, the authority had more than $40 billion in debt outstanding and debt repayments that consumed almost 20% of its $17 billion operating budget.”
With decreased ridership, the debt burden will only grow larger with every passing day. New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli fears the decline in revenue might cause debt to spike to “suffocating levels that could take multiple generations to recover from.”
DiNapoli’s fears are warranted as Mass Transit is facing a confluence of unprecedented challenges to re-attract riders. Considering virtual meetings are on the rise, cities are depopulating, crime is spiking, and budget cuts and bailouts are needed to sustain service, DeNapoli has good reason to be concerned.
With more businesses than ever encouraging employees to work from home, many former mass transit commuters may decide never to return to the daily commute. Others who formerly commuted via mass transit may decide to drive for themselves noting the reduced traffic on the roads and the increased crime on public transportation.
However, the bigger threat to the revival of traditional mass transit is the invisible enemy attacking cities worldwide: power-hungry parasites in government, mainstream media, and BigTech who are trying to reshape the way human beings live and interact.
Cities, like New York, have been transformed from dynamic engines of culture and energy to massive human-farms where sullen, faceless strangers fearfully wander through a concrete maze eagerly awaiting the latest official orders and restrictions. With Broadway still boarded up and restaurants subjected to regulations that seemingly change by the hour, it is going to take years for NYC to recover.
The longer NYC and other major cities remain locked down, the less chance their mass transit systems will have of recovering. Conversely, the more degraded these mass transit systems become, the less chance these cities will have of recovering.
TRENDPOST: Mass transit will continue experiencing a ridership decline as cities are increasingly unappealing and off-limits to tourists, commuters, and residents. Furthermore, with many citizens still fearful of contagion, the probability of a return to crowded public trains and buses seems almost unthinkable. Accordingly, as revenue fails to approach anywhere near the projected figures, debt will soar to such an extent that many of the systems will need to be bailed out.
As large cities with failing transportation system experience depopulation, capital and culture will eventually flee to newer cities in locations with less authoritarian regulation.