UKRAINE VS. RUSSIA: WAR OR PEACE?

Ukrainian troops that have been sent to the Donetsk region of the country have been squaring off with Russian separatists for nearly seven years. Although Moscow recently withdrew some of its forces from the border, many see no end in the standoff that has killed 14,000, according to a report.
“The conflict with Russia will continue in the next 10 to 15 years,” Oleksiy Arestovych, a national-security adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the Wall Street Journal. “They will not leave us alone.”
The report said there have been almost 9,000 cease-fire breaches in April, and Kyiv reported the deaths of more than 30 troops in Donetsk. The Associated Press reported that armed rebels in the region seized government buildings and declared “people’s republics.” Russia has denied claims it has been providing these rebels with weapons and troops.
The Trends Journal reported in our 27 April article, “PUTIN PUTS PRESSURE ON UKRAINE,” that Russia announced it was moving the 100,000 troops deployed to the border with Ukraine back to their home bases by 1 May, which was seen as a major de-escalation in the region.
TREND FORECAST: In our 13 April article, “BIDEN PLEDGES ‘UNWAVERING SUPPORT’ FOR UKRAINE,” we reported that Russia claimed these forces were put into place to prevent a looming Kyiv massacre on Russian separatists in the eastern region.
In March, the United States sent a $125 million military aid package to Ukraine.
Should war break out in Ukraine, we forecast the Russians will not be defeated, and the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine will move toward cession and maintain its open border arrangement with Russia.