When Russia launched the Ukraine War on 24 February 2022, The Trends Journal had forecast that despite mainstream media “experts” and U.S./NATO government “officials” forecasting that Ukraine would defeat Russia, we had forecast the opposite.

Over a year later, despite Russia controlling some 20 percent of Ukraine territory since they invaded and having destroyed much of Ukraine’s power and transportation infrastructure… and its economy, the same crew that said they would defeat Russia is still singing that tune.

And now, top officials from the U.S. worked to downplay the recent leak of classified documents that show Washington now doubts Ukraine’s ability to expel Russian troops and showed a much more sober assessment of Ukrainian casualties in the conflict than what has been reported in the West.

The Washington Post, which viewed some of the documents, reported that a combination of Russian defenses and “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.”

One of the main issues facing Ukraine is the air defense systems. Leaked documents said Kyiv could run out of munitions for its Soviet-era medium and high-range air defenses by early May and “completely reduced by 23 May.”

The New York Times noted that these air defense systems have dissuaded Moscow from unleashing its “lethal fighter jets in ways that could change the course of the war.”

The paper also noted that the particular document was released on 28 February, and based on the “assessment on consumption rates at the time.” 

The Associated Press reported that the Pentagon has been in “full-speed damage control to assure allies” after the emergence of these documents on social media sites like Discord and Telegram. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have both reached out to allies and counterparts in Kyiv. 

Blinken said the goal was to reassure them “about our own commitment to safeguarding intelligence” and “reaffirmed our enduring support for Ukraine and for its territorial integrity, its sovereignty, its independence.”

Austin told reporters that he spoke to Oleksiy Reznikov, the head of Ukraine’s military, and said the Ukrainian official remains “focused on the task at hand” and said Kyiv has “much of the capability that they need to continue to be successful.”

Jack Teixeira, a member of the 102nd Intelligence Wing based in Cape Cod, Mass., was arrested last week in connection to the document leak. 

The Pentagon on Tuesday said it will provide Ukraine with another $2.6 billion in weapons, including up to $500 million in additional Patriot air defense system munitions, artillery rounds, and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) missiles. These weapons will be pulled from U.S. stocks, which will be the 35th such drawdown from U.S. inventory since August 2021, RT, the Russian news outlet reported.

“Our focus is on supporting the Ukrainians to change the dynamic on the ground,” a senior U.S. defense official told ABC News. “We want to help Ukraine advance and hold its positions in what we expect will be a Ukrainian counteroffensive.”

TRENDPOST: The U.S. has been lying about the ability of Ukraine to defeat Russia and keeps singing different tunes. (See “IS IT GEN. MILLEY OR MINNIE MOUSE? MORE BS FROM TOP U.S. GENERAL” 21 Feb 2023 and “U.S. MILITARY HEAD MILLEY CHANGES HIS TUNE AFTER CRITICIZED FOR CALLING FOR KYIV TO NEGOTIATE, NOW SAYS RUSSIA LOST!” 22 Nov 2023.)

Milley now says it is unlikely that Ukraine will defeat Russia this year.

“I don’t think it’s likely to be done in the near term for this year,” he told Defense One.

“[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy has publicly stated many times that the Ukrainian objective is to kick every Russian out of Russian-occupied Ukraine. And that is a significant military task,” he said. “Very, very difficult military task. You’re looking at a couple hundred thousand Russians who are still in Russian-occupied Ukraine. I’m not saying it can’t be done. I’m just saying it’s a very difficult task.”

Again, as we have long forecast, Russia will defeat Ukraine:

● “BIG LIE? RUSSIA TAKES MORE LAND BUT RETIRED U.S. GENERAL SAYS RUSSIA WILL LOSE” 19 July 2022. We continue to note that neither Napoleon nor Hitler could defeat Russia. Thus, to think that Ukraine can defeat Russia’s military is nonsensical.  

● “ZELENSKY REJECTS PEACE PROPOSAL, SAYS UKRAINE WILL BEAT RUSSIA” 31 May 2022. We forecast, as economies in the West decline, the war drags on, and Ukraine loses more territory to Russia… the massive weapons and money flows will dry up and Russia will win the war.

● BIDEN ANNOUNCES $800M IN NEW MILITARY AID FOR UKRAINE26 April 2022. Russia has captured dozens of cities and will continue to do so. And the more weapons that are sent to Ukraine, the greater the amount of death and destruction will ensue before they lose the war to Russia and must surrender. 

● “UKRAINE CONFLICT HEATS UP: PUTIN RECOGNIZES DONETSK, LUHANSK AS INDEPENDENT FROM UKRAINE” 22 February 2022 (Two days before the invasion). The U.S. will not go to war with Russia over Ukraine. The military in Ukraine is no match against the Russians, and its only hope for security in the future is to become a member of NATO, which Blinken did not indicate is any closer today than it was before Russians amassed at the border.

● “PUTIN PUTS PRESSURE ON UKRAINE” 27 April 2021. Regardless of U.S. and NATO support of Ukraine, as evidenced by Russia’s recent military buildup, should war break out in Ukraine, we forecast the Russians will not be defeated, and the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine will move toward cession, as did Crimea, and maintain its open border arrangement with Russia.