Oleksii Reznikov, the Ukrainian defense Minister, tried to downplay expectations for his country’s upcoming counteroffensive and said expectations seem to be “overestimated in the world.”

He warned against “emotional disappointment” because “most people are … waiting for something huge,” The Washington Post reported. 

Ukraine believes the counteroffensive will be used by Western states to get a sense if their military support—from weapons, to training, to intelligence—will pay dividends or if the Ukrainians can—at best—hope for a stalemate. 

The New York Times noted that if the “Ukrainians fall short of expectations, they risk an erosion of Western support.”

The paper said the counteroffensive has been a source of anxiety for Kyiv who know that “victory may ultimately come down to a test of wills between the Kremlin and the West—and which side can muster more political, economic and industrial staying power, possibly for years.”

Petr Pavel, the Czech president who has been NATO’s principal military adviser, reportedly warned Kyiv that a rushed counteroffensive could be disastrous. 

“It will be extremely harmful to Ukraine if this counteroffensive fails, because they will not have another chance, at least not this year,” he said, according to The Guardian. 

Pavel met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 28 April and the two discussed military strategy. He said he walked away from the meeting feeling that Kyiv does not think it has “everything to start successfully an operation.”

Reznikov said Western partners have told him that they need a new example of success “because we need to show it to our people,” The Post reported.

“But I cannot tell you what the scale of this success would be,” he said. “Ten kilometers, 30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?”

TREND FORECAST: The Trends Journal had forecast when the Ukraine War began, that while we’re opposed to Russia’s invasion, we understand why Moscow launched its military operation and that Ukraine’s forces are no match for Russia. Thus considering that they are outmatched, we noted that Kyiv should have negotiated for peace before the war began… and after they lost some 20 percent of the nation to Russia. (See “HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL FOR MACRON: REPEATS CLAIM THAT RUSSIA CAN’T WIN WAR IN UKRAINE” 14 Feb 2023, “RUSSIA WINNING UKRAINE WAR, STILL NO TALK OF PEACE FROM ZELENSKY” 9 Aug 2022, “TOP GERMAN MILITARY OFFICIAL: RAMP UP UKRAINE WAR, BOMBS AWAY OVER RUSSIA” 2 May 2023, “NATO’S STOLTENBERG VOWS TO SUPPORT UKRAINE UNTIL VICTORY OVER RUSSIA” 25 Apr 2023, “SPAIN, U.S. GET TANKS READY FOR UKRAINE IN ANTICIPATION OF NEW OFFENSIVE” 25 Apr 2023, “UKRAINE TO LOSE WAR: U.S. TRIES TO SAVE FACE AFTER CLASSIFIED DOC LEAK” 18 Apr 2023, “PLACE YOUR BETS: CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ SAYS RUSSIA WILL LOSE UKRAINE WAR” 31 May 2022, and “RUSSIA WINNING WAR, U.S/UKRAINE REFUSES TO NEGOTIATE FOR PEACE” 5 Jul 2022.)

The only acceptable narrative in the Western media is that Ukraine will emerge victorious based on their will to defend their homeland. Anyone who suggests otherwise is immediately condemned by Kyiv and banned in the media. Russia is a much bigger power and it has destroyed Ukrainian infrastructure and there are hundreds of thousands of troops in the country.

We have also noted that Ukraine would have been forced to negotiate with Russia months ago if not for the multi-billion-dollar weapon flows from the West and billions in funding to prop up the economically broke and busted Kyiv government.

No Chance of Sneak Attack

The Post noted that Kyiv managed a successful counteroffensive campaign in Kharkiv last spring because it was a surprise attack. Pavel said Russian troops are now anticipating a counteroffensive so there is no chance to benefit from the element of surprise.

Reznikov told The Post that there are 500,000 Russian troops focused on Ukraine and at least 300,000 in the country. 

TRENDPOST: Military analysts say one of the key targets for a Ukrainian counteroffensive would likely be Crimea, which could involve a beach landing with Ukrainian forces. (See “UKRAINIAN WAR ESCALATES: KYIV PLANS TO TAKE OVER CRIMEA. BLOWS UP RUSSIAN OIL DEPOT” 2 May 2023, “RAMPING UP WAR, UKRAINIAN ATTACKS RUSSIAN BASE IN CRIMEA” 4 Apr 2023, and “ARROGANT WARMONGERING MILITARY OFFICERS OFFER ADVICE ON HOW TO RETAKE CRIMEA, DESTROY RUSSIA” 7 Mar 2023.)

Russia has warned that if its existence is at stake, it is willing to go nuclear. The former president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev warned of a nuclear ‘apocalypse’ if NATO and the U.S. continued to ramp up the Ukraine War.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has identified Crimea as his army’s main goal and vowed to reclaim the peninsula.

Russia has warned Ukraine against trying to take the peninsula, which is home to Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol and said any major attack would be interpreted as an attack on Russia and Moscow would respond “using weapons of any kind.”