Workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits shot up to 853,000 during the week of 30 November, climbing by 137,000 from the week before, according to U.S. Labor Department data.
The weekly number of new claims was the highest in two months. Companies have been hiring recently but at a slower pace than in the summer and early fall.
Layoffs are rising and we forecast that the labor market will shrink again this winter, causing net job losses as politicians have imposed strict lockdown measures during what used to be the most prolific retail season of the year.
Remember “Black Friday?
Gone this year… as are all the billions spent on tourism, holiday parties, entertainment, etc., and all those who used to work in those sectors.
Thus, while there were job offerings in finance and technology, employment in sectors such as entertainment, restaurants, retail, and transportation remain weak and will continue to shrink as restaurants and public gathering spots face new restrictions.
Averaging the economists’ forecasts, the economy will expand 1.9 percent in January through March, not the 3.3 percent the same survey predicted in November before the COVID virus’s current wave gained strength.
The economy will add about 295,000 jobs monthly during the next quarter, down from the 440,000 forecasts in the November survey.
Vaccines’ widespread use will add at least 0.5 percent to the second quarter’s growth rate, according to 62.5 percent of economists surveyed, and most said hiring will speed up through April, May, and June.
TREND FORECAST: Yes, there will be a bounce back, but it will be short-lived. Unemployment numbers will decrease but not because new jobs are being created… a small percentage of workers will be returning to their old jobs.
And, yes, there will be short-term economic spikes as economies temporarily rebound from their COVID War lows, but the devastating lockdowns, which are again being imposed by governments, will sink both developed and undeveloped nations deeply into the “Greatest Depression.”
When the reality of the “Greatest Depression” sets in and government stimulus is no longer boosting it up, high-flying equity markets will crash around the world.
