U.S./CHINA RELATIONS: THE NEW COLD WAR


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Last Thursday, the National People’s Congress finalized the legislation giving China’s government the authority to impose strict security measures on Hong Kong residents. Showing unanimity, the Chinese legislature passed the strict, new control measures with only one dissent among the 2,878 votes.
Beijing said the new law was enacted to stem the influence of foreign interference in Hong Kong and to protect against a repeat of the anti-government riots that began last year… that we have covered extensively in the Trends Journal.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, citing a 1992 law that the state department must track Hong Kong’s autonomy, notified Congress the city no longer has the requisite level of independence from the mainland.
“This decision gives me no pleasure,” said Pompeo, “but sound policy making requires a recognition of reality. It is now clear that China is modeling Hong Kong after itself.”
Following Pompeo, on Friday, President Trump said he would begin to remove Hong Kong’s preferential trade and customs status with the United States.
By officially declaring to Congress that Hong Kong’s independence is threatened, measures are being taken by Washington that affects the special trade status Hong Kong has under U.S. law, affecting billions of dollars in U.S. investments there.
In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry in Hong Kong accused the U.S. of interfering in China’s affairs, promising “strong countermeasures.”
And, yesterday, Regina Ip, a member of Hong Kong’s Executive Council and Legislative Council, told CNBC, “If the U.S. freezes Hong Kong assets, or Chinese assets, Beijing could take counter measures. There are no specifics yet, although the Chinese [Ministry of Foreign Affairs] have said that if the U.S. imposes sanctions on Hong Kong, there will be counter measures.”
TRENDPOST: The U.S. has more to lose. The U.S. exports about $30 billion worth of goods to Hong Kong each year but imports only about $5 billion worth.
Thus, China could retaliate by extending its trade policies to apply to Hong Kong, which the policies now do not. If China did so, new tariffs would burden the $30 billion in U.S. exports to Hong Kong, likely reducing trade volume and resulting revenue to U.S. companies; more U.S. jobs could be lost.
Riots and Rebellion
 Last Wednesday, thousands of Hong Kong residents took to the streets to oppose the new laws resulting in hundreds of arrests. The city’s politicians who oppose the mainland’s new security laws cited the threat to Hong Kong as a center for capital investment and exchange.
Last Tuesday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce issued a statement of deep concern with the new security laws and specifically called on Beijing to “peacefully de-escalate” the heated conditions in Hong Kong and to preserve the “one country, two-systems” principle.
TREND FORECAST: With the U.S. in social and economic turmoil – COVID Hysteria and now besieged with protests, violence, looting, and riots following the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police – the riots and protests in Hong Kong and the harsh crackdowns by its government are not big mainstream news.
We forecast a new cold war between China and the U.S. will quickly heat up, especially as global economies go down.
History is repeating itself. In the 1930s, during the Great Depression, there was a currency war and a trade war with Japan, followed by World War II.
In 2020, there is a currency war (the yuan is at 2008 lows) and a trade war with China at the onset of the “Greatest Depression.” Will it be followed by World War III?
We fear so. Whether with China, Iran, or another “enemy,” as Gerald Celente says, “When all else fails, they take you to war.”
This would be the war to end all wars… and most life on the planet.
If we do not fight for peace, we will die in war.
 The evidence of how quickly and deadly it can occur could be no clearer than now.
With a blink of a cosmic eye, the entire world changed as obedient citizens marched to the orders from their leaders to fight the COVID War.
Indeed, the 28 April Trends Journal cover illustrates: “DUMB ENOUGH TO BELIEVE BUSH’S WARS – DUMB ENOUGH TO BELIEVE THE COVID WAR.”
 
 

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