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Since the COVID War began last year the Trends Journal has repeatedly forecast that the economic and societal impacts of COVID-19 have proven that “the cure is worse than the disease”; see “THE ‘CURE’ IS WORSE THAN THE DISEASE” (14 Apr 2020), “CURE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE?” (21 Apr 2020), and “COVID WAR COLLATERAL DAMAGE OUTWEIGHS DISEASE” (15 Jun 2021).
Hundreds of millions of lives and livelihoods, businesses and even whole industries have been negatively affected by the COVID War. Among them is the movie theater industry, which wasn’t exactly thriving even before COVID-19 became a household word; see “AMC THEATER CHAIN LOSES $2.2 BILLION” (16 Jun 2020) and “GOING DOWN, GOING BUST, GOING OUT” (6 Oct 2020).
Rising prices at the ticket booth and the concession stand, plus streaming services and other alternative ways to view movies, and the declining state of shopping malls (where many movie theaters are located)—see “DARK THEATERS DARKEN MALLS’ FUTURE” (27 Oct 2020)—had all taken their toll even before lockdowns and social distancing had their effect. Over a recent weekend, gross ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada were roughly half of what they’d been for the same weekend in 2019.
The New York Times reported on 30 November, that a new study, self-commissioned by three research and consultancy concerns with ties to the industry, found that many former moviegoers may never set foot in a theater again, causing the industry to never recover.
The subjects were 2,528 people who had attended a movie theater in 2019. Some 51 percent of those studied had purchased tickets recently; reportedly, they were largely 25 to 45 year-old white men living in cities.
The other 49 percent, predominantly female, were no longer attending movie theaters, but were in favor of vaccine mandates for theater attendance.
They also were concerned about price and value, and about one-third said that what would make them consider patronizing theaters again would be lower ticket and concession prices, better seats, and theaters enforcing rules on cell phone usage.
Those the study called “likely losts,” the 8 percent who haven’t bought a ticket during the “pandemic” and don’t envision themselves returning to movie theaters, are “lower-income consumers.” The study notes that this group has “a large proportion of Hispanic, Black and Asian women.”
TREND FORECAST: The movie business workforce is 20.9 percent smaller than it was before the COVID War began in 2020. And as of late October, ticket sales are down some 70 percent from 2019′s $11.4 billion revenue stream.
The industry already faces challenges from the myriad ways consumers can now access entertainment (on handheld screens on-the-go or almost-theater-sized screens at home), much of it free. And the COVID lockdowns have taught people to be content spending more time at home.
Like the restaurant industry, the movie theater industry can’t operate profitably with limited seating and social distancing requirements. Trends Journal’s forecast is for more theater closings and bankruptcies in the short term and, in the long term, that “going to the movies” will go the way of the horse-and-buggy.
TRENDPOST: We are told that 49 percent might go back to theaters if a “No Jab, No Movie” rule were imposed, and that, since COVID-19 became an issue, the major purchasers of movie tickets have been 25 to 45 year-old white men living in cities.
Trends Journal can accept the first part—it often seems that roughly half the people anywhere are all-too-happy with mask and vax mandates—but can’t help but be a bit skeptical about the second part and wonder if the study could be flawed; is that really the demographic that buys half the movie tickets?