In May 2016, the Trends Journal was the first news source to forecast Donald Trump’s White House win. In our “2020 Top Trends” issue, one of our forecasts is “Trump 2020: By Default.” We are now holding back on that forecast. In our “Trump 2020: By Default” forecast, we had written that when Trump would...
Tag: Feb182020
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VENEZUELA: UN-HERO’S WELCOME
Juan Guaidó, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela, was a big hit two weeks ago when he was given a seat of honor by President Trump at his State of the Union address. Given a rousing standing ovation for regime change by virtually the entire U.S. Congress, Guaidó was championed as their hero, who, with the...
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MEXICO: RATES FALL
In its first 2020 policy meeting, the Bank of Mexico cut its overnight interest rate from 7.25 percent to 7. It was the fifth consecutive quarter-point rate cut to come out of the bank’s board of governors’ quarterly meetings. The cut was the board’s first unanimous decision since May 2019. The cut was made after...
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AUSTRALIA: DOUBLE WHAMMY
Australia’s three straight decades of economic growth without a recession are due in large measure to its robust trade with nearby China. Now the good times might be ending. First, drought and abnormally high temperatures have combined to fan the worst wildfires the continent has confronted in decades. An area the size of Belgium and...
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THE NETHERLANDS: BAD LOANS ON THE RISE
ABN Amro, a Dutch bank majority-owned by the Dutch government, is conducting the second review in two years of its lending and investment banking practices after a dramatic increase in bad loans. The bank’s profits in 2019’s final quarter were down 43 percent year-on-year and the bank’s share price lost 6 percent last Wednesday after...
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JAPAN: ECONOMY SHRINKS DRASTICALLY
Japan’s economy, the world’s third largest, contracted by 6.3 percent during the last three months of December, the sharpest contraction since a 7.4-percent hit in the second quarter of 2014. The drop is almost twice the 3.7-percent shrinkage that had been expected. The contraction is being attributed, in part, to last September’s sales tax hike...
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EURO TAKES A BEATING
The Eurozone’s common currency plunged to its weakest point in two-and-a-half years as investors fled the Eurozone’s sagging economy and the coronavirus scare and took refuge in the dollar. The dollar has been 2020’s strongest currency among the G10 group of nations. The euro sank even further Thursday afternoon when the Trump administration said it...
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FACTORY SLUMP CASTS DOUBT ON ECONOMIC REBOUND
The Eurozone’s factory output fell 2.1 percent in December, reflecting earlier reports of poor performance in France, Italy, and Germany. The slump was worse than expected. During the first 11 months of 2019, the region’s industrial production fell 4.1 percent, its worst drop since 2012’s sovereign debt crisis. Analysts are revising downward their projections for...
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EUROZONE GROWTH SLOWEST IN SEVEN YEARS
It had nothing to do with the coronavirus. It happened last year. The Eurozone’s economy grew at a rate of 0.1 percent in 2019’s final quarter, a slowdown unmatched since the currency crisis of 2012. The rate blew apart hopes that the region’s economy was beginning to improve. Germany was the greatest disappointment, reporting zero...
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GLOBAL SLOWDOWN: WINNERS AND LOSERS
Global trade grew at just 1 percent in 2019, down from 4 percent in 2018 and 6 percent in 2017. It was the fourth worst performance in 40 years and the worst ever for a time not in recession. China’s imports fell by $59 billion, the U.S.’s by $42 million during the year. The trade...