As we have greatly detailed over the weeks and as illustrated in this issue of the Trends Journal, it is a new world order. Much of what used to be emerging markets have emerged to large global economies providing products and services that were once dominated by the United States.
And as we continue to detail, much of the new world order will no longer tolerate the United States geopolitical and economic hegemony. In this section we further detail the coming death of the U.S. dollar.
- India Shifts Away From Dollar, Promotes Rupee as a Global Currency
- ASEAN Nations Prepare to Shift Trade Payments to Local Currencies
- Brazil and China Abandon the Dollar, Will Trade in Own Currencies
- Russia Ties Itself Tighter to China’s Renminbi Currency
INDIA SHIFTS AWAY FROM DOLLAR, PROMOTES RUPEE AS A GLOBAL CURRENCY
On 1 April, India’s government implemented a new trade policy designed to spur its manufacturing industries and expand its exports to a value of $2 trillion by 2030.
As part of the policy, India will de-emphasize the dollar as the standard for international payments and instead promote the rupee as a valid currency for global trade.
Recently, India and Russia agreed to accept each other’s currency in payments for trade as Western sanctions limited their sources of goods and foreign exchange.
Iran also now accepts rupees in payment for oil shipments to India; Malaysia has agreed to take rupees in payment for its exports to the subcontinent.
The new policy also creates a designated e-commerce zone in India for warehouses to facilitate imports and shipments for online retailers.
The new policy is a response to various recent blows to India’s economy, including supply chain disruptions, Western sanctions against Russian exports, and being caught in the middle of East-West geopolitical tensions.
ASEAN NATIONS PREPARE TO SHIFT TRADE PAYMENTS TO LOCAL CURRENCIES
In a meeting last week, finance ministers and central bank governors from ASEAN nations began discussions about shifting trade payments away from the dollar, yen, euro, and British pound and accepting each other’s currencies instead.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a 10-country trading bloc encompassing small nations such as Brunei, Cambodia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Australia and New Zealand are affiliates.
ASEAN’s Local Currency Transaction Plan and its digital payment system will be expanded to allow all member countries to pay for imports with their own currencies.
The expansion grows from a similar agreement negotiated among Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand last November.
Moving to regional currencies protects trading among bloc nations from “geopolitical repercussions,” Indonesian president Joko Widodo said in comments quoted by Asia Briefing.
Among ASEAN members, only Singapore enforces Western sanctions against Russia. Other countries in the bloc still trade with Russia.
The sanctions are expected to damage the region’s cotton manufacturing industry, which employs millions of workers among several ASEAN countries, Asia Briefing said.
BRAZIL AND CHINA ABANDON THE DOLLAR, WILL TRADE IN OWN CURRENCIES
Brazil and China will accept each other’s currencies for trade payments, no longer using the dollar as an intermediary, according to media reports.
According to Brazil’s finance ministry, 25 countries now accept China’s renminbi directly, forsaking the dollar, euro, or other major currencies as standards.
The agreement is part of a larger deal in which the two countries will expand trade in food and minerals.
The agreement “will reduce costs…promote even greater bilateral trade and promote investment,” the Brazil Trade and Investment Promotion Agency said in a public statement.
Brazil and China will establish a clearinghouse for payments as well as loans in the two currencies, a move that will reduce costs as well as speed transactions that no longer need to be first converted to dollars and back to reals or renminbi.
For more than a decade, China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner. The relationship booked a record $150 billion in 2022.
RUSSIA TIES ITSELF TIGHTER TO CHINA’S RENMINBI CURRENCY
Russia has accepted China’s renminbi as a key currency in its foreign reserves, for some transnational trades, and even accepts it in some personal banking transactions.
Russia has declared the U.S. dollar and currencies of many NATO countries “toxic” and is turning more toward China and India as essential trading partners.
Western allies have also frozen more than $300 billion of Russia’s foreign reserves stored outside the country and shut out most of its banks from participating in SWIFT, the main transborder communication system for financial transactions.
Chinese-Russian trade topped $185 billion in 2022, setting a record as Russia’s exports were embargoed by Western allies and imports to Russia were similarly banned.
Before Russia attacked Ukraine, Russia paid for 60 percent of its foreign purchases with those “toxic” currencies. Now they account for less than half of foreign payments, with the renminbi taking 16 percent.
Russia was the fourth largest user of the renminbi by volume in February, SWIFT data showed. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not among the top 15 users.
“A year ago, the renminbi was an exotic currency used only by those working with China,” Natalia Revenko, whose company HelpYou aids Russians opening foreign bank accounts, told the Financial Times.
“Now people use it for all types of foreign transactions,” she said, “even those having nothing to do with China.”
When Russian president Vladimir Putin met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping earlier this month, Putin endorsed “the use of the [Chinese] yuan in payments between Russia and countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America.”
Many Russian banks are now paying higher interest on renminbi-denominated accounts than on dollar-denominated deposits, the Financial Times noted.
Russia’s central bank probably holds about 17 percent of its foreign reserves in renminbi, according to an estimate by the German Council on Foreign Relations.
In contrast, less than 3 percent of the world’s central banks’ foreign reserves are in renminbi, the International Monetary Fund’s most recent data shows.
Russia runs a risk in tying itself more closely to China’s currency, as Beijing has a history of suddenly devaluing its currency, the FT said.
Many Russians apparently share that skepticism: the renminbi still only makes up 2 percent of personal and corporate bank deposits, the FT reported.
TREND FORECAST: As we have greatly detailed over the past few years, China and Russia will continue to bond closer as they unite against America’s military and financial hegemony.
It should also be noted that Saudi Arabia was the leader in announcing the cutting back of oil production and they too, as detailed, have moved much closer to China in trade, technology and commercial development.
Therefore, a major bullet to the heart of the dollar is when OPEC kills the petro dollar and sells it oil for the currencies of their choice… such as the yuan.