ECONOMIC UPDATE

ECONOMIC UPDATE

As we have detailed, as trend forecasters it’s not what you like, don’t like, want, don’t want, it’s what is. 

A double exposure photo that combines an aerial view of an offshore oil rig platform in a gulf with a digital overlay of stock market price changes.

SPOTLIGHT: THE OIL CRISIS CONTINUES

Two oil tankers were attacked and set on fire in the Persian Gulf late last week, making real the fears that Iran would use military force to shut down oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

A person working on a laptop with a digital overlay of various charts, including bar graphs and pie charts.

SPOTLIGHT: PRIVATE CREDIT’S VERY BAD WEEK

The private credit market is approaching a sharp correction, in part because many private lenders such as Blue Owl have “misrepresented” the amount of losses they have incurred, which are “larger than reported,” according to an analysis by Glendon Capital Management, a $5-billion fund that invests in distressed debt.

A black-and-white globe with Iran highlighted in red.

IRAN’S NEW LEADER VOWS TO KEEP FIGHTING AGAINST ISRAEL, U.S.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader of Iran, said in his first public statement last week that he will continue to strike U.S. bases in the region and keep the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed, indicating that Tehran has little interest in seeking an off-ramp as the war entered its second week.

Global Economy

A data analytics center with two professionals in business attire collaborating while analyzing complex data displayed on a large video wall.

SPOTLIGHT: BIGS GETTING BIGGER

Cintas, which supplies businesses with uniforms and maintenance items such as floor mats and mops, will pay $310 a share for Unifirst, a smaller uniform competitor. 

Germany economy concept with the official German flag, stacks of coins, and a stock graph.

GERMANY’S ECONOMY STILL TEETERS ON THE EDGE OF RECESSION

The German economy, still struggling to rise out of the recession that gripped it through 2023 and 2024, “had a very weak start to the new year,” Carsten Brzeski, ING’s chief global macroeconomist, wrote to clients last week.

A lady interacts with a humanoid service robot at a technology exhibition in Chongqing, China.

CHINA’S GROWTH DILEMMA: JOBS VS. ADVANCED TECH

On 13 March, China’s parliament rubber-stamped the Communist Party’s plan to bet the country’s next five years on achieving global dominance in technologies including AI and robotics, both of which are expected to erase millions of jobs.

U.S. Economy

Photo of an e-commerce shipping workstation with numerous brown cardboard boxes used for packaging products for delivery.

SMALL BUSINESSES SENT MIXED MESSAGES IN FEBRUARY

U.S. small businesses were slightly less confident in February than in January but have higher hopes for the future, according to the newest monthly small business poll by the National Federation of Independent Business.

The Iran War

Hi-Tech Science

A LEAP FORWARD FOR CALCIUM-ION BATTERIES

A LEAP FORWARD FOR CALCIUM-ION BATTERIES

Calcium as the key ingredient in batteries has shown promise as a replacement for lithium, which is not only expensive but has become environmentally controversial as more mines are proposed for sensitive areas.

The above are just a few of the many articles in the latest Trends Journal. CLICK HERE for the full edition.